10-31: The scary day approaches: rumblings of violence, Trump may declare victory or keep campaigning, massive gun-buying

✅Current and former Trump administration officials are worried about what might happen on Nov. 4.

Officials say Trump will claim some kind of “victory” on November 4th even if the vote tallies show him behind
—NYT (Opinion; Ron Suskind) 

 ✅‘We may have a wild roller-coaster ride’ after the election, says Ohio State law professor Edward Foley 

—WashPo 

 ✅Trump may just keep campaigning after Election Day -- Trump campaign surrogates have been told to keep their Novembers clear for potential campaign events, even if the election results are still unknown. Meridith McGraw and Gabby Orr Politico -- 10/31/20 

 ✅With Election Day looming, an anxious nation hears rumblings of violence 

A spike in gun sales, bellicose chatter online, and surveys showing increased tolerance for violence have some analysts worried. 

—WashPo 

 ✅Counties, cops making sure you’re safe at the polls -- Attorney General Xavier Becerra sent a bulletin to law enforcement officials Thursday reminding them that voter intimidation and election interference is against the law. He laid out rules about what poll watchers can and can’t do. Lewis Griswold CalMatters -- 10/31/20 

 

✅Anxious Religious Leaders Come Together to Urge Calm in Orange County Ahead of Election Day 

—Voice of OC 

    "With terms like “contested election” and “will there be a civil war” growing in recent days and weeks as Google search trends, religious leaders like Rev. Samuel Pullen of the Community Congregational United Church of Christ in Los Alamitos said it will fall on all faith figures, including himself, to be community bastions of civility and nonviolence."

 ✅‘There Are No Boundaries’: Experts Imagine Trump’s Post-Presidential Life if He Loses

—Politico 

 ✅The College Degree Is Dividing AmericaWhat does that mean for higher education? 

—CHE

 ✅An East Bay professor is teaching the theory that race influences intelligence. Students and faculty want him out -- An economics professor at one of California’s most diverse public universities has for years taught a fringe theory that race influences intelligence, claiming that certain Black and Hispanic ethnic groups are less intelligent on average than white Europeans and Northeast Asians. Jason Fagone in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 10/31/20 

Wright campaign law violation update

     SOCCCD Trustee candidate Ryan Dack just sent me his opponent’s (James Wright’s) late filing of a 9-page “form 460” to which was attached a form 497 “contribution report.” Here’s that last document: 

Click on graphic go enlarge

     Filed today, it reveals that Wright received over $2,000 ($3982.78, precisely the cost of a 200-word campaign statement) from the union on August 4th. As I explained yesterday, campaign laws require that a candidate file a 460 to reveal receipt of contributions of $2,000 or more. Wright had failed to do that—until today.

     For what it's worth, I think Dack is an attractive, energetic, and progressive candidate and, as such, a perfect replacement for James Wright and his tired and clueless ways. Tired and clueless: that could be said about most of the rest of the SOCCCD board of trustees. 

     It is time for a change.

10:30: Moody’s Forecasts Widespread Drop in Tuition Revenue; Trump Jr.: covid-19 deaths are at ‘almost nothing’; Mission Viejo yogurt shop brouhaha

✅Colleges Forecast Net Tuition Revenue Declines for Fiscal 2021 

—Inside Higher Ed 

     Median net tuition revenue will likely decline by 3.3 percent at private colleges and universities and by 0.9 percent at public colleges and universities in the 2021 fiscal year, according to a Moody’s Investors Service annual tuition survey of institutions it rates. 

     The data show negative net tuition revenue growth in both public and private sectors for the first time since 2009, when the tuition survey began…. 

✅Moody’s Forecasts Widespread Drop in Tuition Revenue. Here’s Why That Matters. 

—CHE 

✅The Coronavirus Humanities 

—CHE 

✅Trump Jr. said covid-19 deaths are at ‘almost nothing’ on a day more than 1,000 Americans died

—WashPo 

✅The virus is surging in every swing state 

—WashPo 

✅California may “shatter the total vote record” -- As the final weekend before Election Day approaches, approximately 40 percent of California’s electorate, or 8.5 million voters, have already cast their ballots—about double the number a week ago. As more in-person polling places open, experts say the state is on track to have more votes cast than ever before. Zachary Fletcher CalMatters -- 10/30/20 

✅Community backs Southern California yogurt shop owner after lawsuit threat over masks -- Mariana Tabla, co-owner of a Mission Viejo yogurt shop called Frapys, has become a rock star at least among people in the community who believe in wearing face coverings, which are recommended by county and state health officials. Erika I. Ritchie in the Orange County Register -- 10/30/20 

✅Biden’s Call for ‘National Mask Mandate’ Gains Traction in Public Health Circles -- As the nation heads into what public health experts are calling a “dark winter” of coronavirus illness and death, public health experts are coalescing around Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s call for a “national mask mandate,” even as they concede such an effort would require much more than the stroke of a presidential pen. Sheryl Gay Stolberg in the New York Times$ -- 10/30/20 

✅Coronavirus nearly 7 times more widespread in Orange County than reported, study shows -- While the screening, a collaborative effort between UC Irvine and the OC Health Care Agency, demonstrates that the coronavirus may be far more widespread — though less deadly — than official numbers indicate, researchers said more work is needed to understand the level of protection that antibodies provide and how best to address disparities in how the virus affects different populations. Luke Money in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/29/20

✅A Trump-Fueled Tsunami of Distrust Has Swamped Our Elections. Americans Are Voting Anyway. 

—Politico 

✅Trump Admitted Years Ago to a “Little Conflict of Interest” in Turkey. It’s Not So Little. 

Pressuring DOJ not to prosecute a Turkish bank for helping Iran “illustrates how compromised President Trump is.” 

—Mother Jones

District 6 Trustee Candidate RYAN DACK tags opponent James Wright for campaign finance violation

Ryan Dack

     Earlier today, I was contacted by SOCCCD trustee candidate (district 6) Ryan Dack, who apprised me of his efforts looking into the campaign finances of his opponent, James Wright. Dack asserts that Wright is in violation of campaign finance law, for he received a contribution of over $2,000 from the South Orange County Community College District Faculty Association (the district faculty union) sometime in July/August but never filed a form 460. 

     The filing of form 460 is required by state law and the Fair Political Practices Commission (FPPC) when a candidate receives a contribution of over $2,000. Wright only filed a form 470, which indicated that he would not raise over $2,000. 

     Here’s that document: 

     And here’s the FPPC’s official wording on when a Form 460 must be filed: 

Wright

The Form 460 is for use by all recipient committees, including: Candidates, Officeholders and Their Controlled Committees. 

[This form is for]…A candidate or officeholder who has a controlled committee, or who has raised or spent or will raise or spend $2,000 or more during a calendar year in connection with election to office or holding office. The Form 460 is also required if $2,000 or more will be raised or spent during the calendar year at the behest of the officeholder or candidate. [See California Form 460] 

     Dack says he recognizes that this is no great shakes. Still, he believes “that our public servants should be transparent about where their money comes from.” He doesn’t believe that Wright’s violation was malicious. On the other hand, “at the very least we should expect competency from our elected officials when it comes to things like campaign finance.”

     According to Dack, at this point, Wright’s form 460 is over 80 days late and he’ll face a penalty.

SOCCCD trustee area 6

Fire news

Cook's Corner at Santiago Canyon and Live Oak Canyon, c. 1970

     I'm having trouble finding decent coverage of the Silverado fire, as it concerns its eastern flank.

     I do believe the fire people don't expect this fire to be fully contained until the 11th of November, but I suspect that that factoid makes the situation seem worse than it is. Indications are (I think) that the fire authorities have done a lot to contain this monster.

     The Reb and crew are safe and sound. My bro's family got lucky and just missed the mandatory evacuations in east Irvine. The air there has been pretty bad but things are definitely slowly getting back to normal, at least in my brother's part of east Irvine.

     I did find the same "hot spot" map (see yesterday), only updated. It looks good:

Rebel Girl's place and my place are represented by blue dots on the right (bottom half).

     Hotspot-wise, we seems to be much better off than yesterday. Here's yesterday's map:

Again, look for the blue dots.

Here's yet another "hotspot" map, done from satellite:

The darker the spot, the older it is, I think. The light blue spot at lower right isn't a hot spot;
it seems to be Modjeska Canyon, or near there. My place is down from there
and a little to the right. So I think we're sittin' pretty.

Teddy says "hey."

I've added some pics below that the Reb took yesterday:

Looking west, I think, from Santiago Canyon Rd.,
near the southernmost Modjeska turnoff.

Same vantage point. Is that Whiting Ranch back there?

GRATUITOUS HISTORICAL IMAGERY (The Santa Ana Mountains):

El Toro Marine Base (now Irvine), May 1945

An 1886 photo of the Lawson family, residents of Hagador Canyon. Hagador Canyon

is in the northeastern Santa Anas, near Corona, CA

10-28: Money talks; Transfers to 2-Year Colleges Plunge; White House science office takes credit for 'ending' pandemic

✅The Top Election Spenders in OC’s Biggest Cities and Who They’re Backing 

Here’s a simple look at the biggest spenders in Anaheim, Santa Ana and Irvine and who they’re backing or opposing. 

—Voice of OC 

     As voters pick their new representatives in OC’s largest cities, hundreds of thousands of dollars are being spent to help particular candidates win or lose – with the largest spending coming from Disney, police unions and a host of developers. 

     With much of the campaign money now disclosed in hundreds of public reports, here’s a simple look at the biggest spenders in Anaheim, Santa Ana and Irvine this election and who they’re backing or opposing. 

. . . 

Anaheim 

     In Anaheim, Walt Disney Corp. continues to reign supreme once again in election spending in the city, pumping $1.5 million into a committee supporting candidates Jose Diaz, Steve Faessel and Avelino Valencia…. 

Santa Ana 

     Santa Ana’s police union is again the dominant spender in city elections this year, though at a far-reduced spending level than previous years following a successful – and expensive – recall campaign the union funded this spring…. 

Irvine 

     Developers Five Point Communities and The Irvine Co. continue to be the dominant spenders in Irvine elections, pumping over $400,000 dollars into groups supporting candidates Mike Carroll, Christina Shea and John Park, and opposing Larry Agran and Tammy Kim. 

     The money can take twists and turns on its way into the election. 

     Voters across the city have been receiving mailers from a PAC called the Greater Irvine Education Guide – the single biggest spender on ads in the election. That PAC is, in turn, funded by at least $78,000 from groups that themselves are largely funded by Five Point and The Irvine Co, according to public campaign finance records. 

     And in some cases, the money is coming from Five Point’s lobbying firm, Starpointe Ventures, which is run by lobbyist Patrick Strader and his family…. 

✅House Democrats Charge Ed Dept. Concealed Actions 

Top House Democrats on Tuesday released emails that seemed to contradict the Education Department’s public denials that it stopped the development of a tool on its website to make it easier for students who had been defrauded by for-profit colleges to apply to have their federal debt canceled. 

—Inside Higher Ed 

✅Political Divide Over Colleges' Fall Reopenings 

The American public is divided over just about everything -- so why wouldn't it be divided over whether colleges and universities should have brought students back to their physical campuses this fall? 

—Inside Higher Ed 

     A survey released by the Pew Research Center this week finds Americans split down the middle on the question of whether colleges that are providing "in-person instruction did/did not make the right decision bringing students back to campus this fall." 

     Fifty percent of those surveyed by Pew said colleges made the right call -- while 48 percent said they did not. But as will probably surprise no one, the proportions look very different by political party. Almost three-quarters of Republicans (74 percent) said that colleges and universities that opened their campuses for in-person instruction made the right decision, while more than two-thirds of Democrats (68 percent) said the institutions were wrong to open. 

✅Cal State Enrollment Reached All-Time High 

—Inside Higher Ed 

     A record number of students are enrolled in the California State University system’s 23 campuses during the fall 2020 semester, system officials announced in a press release Monday.

     The system enrolled 485,549 students this fall, an all-time high, and surpassed its previous enrollment record of 484,297 during the fall 2017 semester, the release said. Fall 2020 enrollment is up 3,620 students from fall 2019, when the system enrolled 481,929 students, the release said. 

     Part of the reason for the system’s record enrollment this semester is an all-time high retention rate among first-year students who started at Cal State campuses during 2019, the release said. About 85 percent of these students returned to campus for the fall 2020 semester, according to system officials…. 

✅In Another Blow to Student Equity, Transfers to 2-Year Colleges Plunge 

—CHE 

✅Southern California counties see surge in new coronavirus cases -- In four Southern California counties — Imperial, San Bernardino, Riverside and Los Angeles — the average numbers of new daily infections per 100,000 residents over the past week rank among the top five statewide, according to The Times’ coronavirus tracker. Luke Money in the Los Angeles Times$ 

✅White House science office takes credit for 'ending' pandemic as infections mount -- The White House’s science policy office on Tuesday ranked “ending the Covid-19 pandemic” atop the list of President Donald Trump’s top first-term accomplishments, even as the country registers record amounts of infections and hospitals fill up again. Brianna Ehley Politico -- 10/28/20

✅Southern California Edison lines may have sparked massive Silverado fire in Irvine -- Southern California Edison said it is investigating whether its electrical equipment may have caused the Silverado fire, which has burned more than 7,200 acres in Irvine and caused more than 60,000 to flee their homes. Andrew J. Campa, Ruben Vives in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/27/20

✅Study finds 12% of Orange County residents had coronavirus by summer

—OC Reg

✅Miles Taylor revealed as ‘Anonymous’ writer of insider warnings about Trump 

The New York Times called Taylor a Trump ‘senior official.’ Was that accurate? 

—WashPo

"It's like the Apocalypse," he said

     We lost electricity yesterday morning, just before 9:00 a.m. At that point, I had no source of information, since I get no cell phone service in our little canyon and, of course, we had no land line, TV or wi-fi. 

     We had just experienced a serious wind storm—broken tree branches were everywhere—and so I assumed that that had temporarily taken out the power. Usually, when we lose electricity, it is restored within seconds or minutes or, on rare occasions, a few hours, so, by noon I started to wonder if something special was going on. 

     I hunkered down and did some grading, using up my laptop's battery.

     It wasn’t until later in the afternoon that my sister, Annie, who lives two hundred yards or so to the northeast of me in Bauers’ Canyon—there’s a hillock between us—showed up and informed me that there was a fire. 

     She pointed to the west. 

     Uh-oh.

     Bauers' Canyon, a wonderful 10-acre rural "compound" a mile or so above O'Neill Park, is located against a steep hill—a cliff, really—and so the view to the west is almost completely blocked. There was no sign of smoke, nor could we smell it. That was a good sign. The wind must be moving it away from us, we thought.

My place and Reb/Red's place are marked in white, lower right

     Annie told me what she knew, or thought she knew, which was frustratingly little. Somehow, she said, a fire started—she didn’t know when or where—and it was moving fast. They’re calling it the “Silverado fire.” (Silverado Canyon is several miles to the north of us; see map.)

     She said she thought that Edison had turned off the power as a precaution. (Turns out, their equipment likely started the fire, up by the junction of Santiago Canyon and Silverado Canyon.) 

     Where’d she get her information? Somehow, she had possession of some recently deceased person’s smart phone (don’t ask) and so she used it to call up her idiot friend Allan, who lives up in the Bay Area. (That service works.) Allan, a notorious dolt—he's a Trumpian, among other things—told her what he had heard and read about the fire. So our info at that point was pretty sketchy, and the iPhone was losing power fast. 

     We have an electric gate at the entrance to Bauers’ Canyon, which is great for safety—until you have a fire, and the power's out, and you might need to make a hasty exit but you can't. So we went down there and tried to roll open the gate. Naturally, there was no way. Our neighbor Gary and his pal saw us and helped out; we soon got the gate open far enough to get our cars through, if and when the time came. Whew! 

     The neighbors knew even less than we did about the fire. 

     To make a long story short, we spent the night in the dark (you should try it), and, by the morning, we were happy to find that the wind had died down quite a bit. Annie managed to use the iPhone as a wi-fi source for her laptop, though that was sketchy. I managed to make use of her Rube Goldberg system to update my students (I'm teaching online) and my dean—and my brother, in east Irvine, whose family seemed to be OK, though they're threatened with evacuation. 

     That’s when my laptop’s memory got to about zero. 

Teddy, cat

     Eventually, Teddy, my cat, and I went to take a nap. Yep, a nap. That's how we roll.

     An hour or so later, we were rudely awakened by a phone call—which was amazing, cuz my phone hasn't worked in over a week (don't ask)—and I realized that the power was back on. (It was cops asking for money. I said nope.) 

     So we have electricity again!

     I started up my laptop and found a map of the fire (see above). Turns out we’re damned close to it; it is, or was, a mile or so to the west, just over the ridge. The smoke must’ve blown away from us 'cause, again, we haven’t seen or smelled it—although, an hour ago, my sister claimed she could smell it. But she’s always claiming superpowers, including a super sniffer, and I'm skeptical.

     Annie just called and she now tells me we’re under a voluntary evacuation order. So we're packing up.

     Anyway, we’re fine right now though we’re worried about the fire. But we've been here before, especially back in 2007. 

     Don’t know about the Reb and Red Emma over in Modjeska Canyon. 

     Stay tuned, I guess.

     Yesterday, my conservative neighbor, Gary, standing among the wind refuse when he helped us with the fence, said: "I'm not much of a church-goer, but, all of a sudden, it's like the Apocalypse!"

     Yeah.

Louis and the Reb evacuating, back in 2007

UPDATE (5:50 pm): 

     Just got a call from the Reb and Red Emma who are at some taco place along Portola (near Sprouts, I guess). The fire is awfully close to their place—just over the hill in Whiting Ranch (see map). They've been evacuated and they're heading to alternative shelter. The Sheriff (or some such) came around their place at about 1:00 this afternoon and told 'em to git. They did what they could to secure their place, grabbed their "three angry cats" (and Louis, I'm sure), and rolled out.

     They're pretty sure that Lewis Long is evacuated, 'cause his neighborhood is in the fire zone (it is, according to my Register map). Earlier, they watched as tankers dumped water on those neighborhoods.

     Rebel Girl says "hi!" 

     She's pretty gloomy. She talked about the ferocious wind and reminded me that we went through all this stuff with the fire of 2007. 

     It was horrible then; it is horrible now. (The 2007 fire actually got right up to Reb's house, but it somehow survived.)

     Plus that bastard Trump is still in office!

     "Not for long," I said.

     When you're talking with the Reb, you've got to stay positive. She depends on me for that.

     According to the map, my bro's family is also in some kind of fire zone (see the bottom corner of the top tan patch). Knowing him, I'm sure they're fine. Here's hopin'.

     Teddy says "hey."

UPDATE (7:30 pm): 

     The wind has been crazy all day, mostly blowing west/northwest or north, but since 4:00 pm, it's been heading east/northeast (increasingly to the east), which moves the Whiting Ranch part closer to Modjeska Canyon. As of a couple of hours ago, it was blowing at 9 mph, though I can detect no wind at all (at my place not far from Cook's Corner).

     At about 6:00 pm (just found the email), my bro wrote: "Kind of looks like the smoke reduced to very little in the last couple of hours, at least in the area above Foothill Ranch. And the wind seems to have gone. They aren't changing the containment number, but it seems encouraging."

UPDATE (8:45 pm):
     I found this "hotspot" map for the Silverado fire, and it seems to provide a better sense of where the fire really is. Unfortunately, I don't know how current it is. Check it out:

Again, Reb's place and mine indicated with blue dots at lower right

8:30 pm: For the first time, I can smell smoke. Sheesh.

UPDATE (9:40 pm):

     Right now, the wind is headed east/southeast at 4 mph (in Live Oak Canyon). Not good. No wonder we can smell smoke. But the wind direction has been shifty all day, so there's that. And it's only 4 mph. 

2007: about a half mile from my place: toast

See also

✅Ten Years ago today: the big fire, DtB
Monday, October 23, 2017

The fire zone includes the site (Loma Ridge) of that terrible crash (84 dead) of a Marine Corps jet in 1965:

✅Flying into a mountain, DtB
Sunday, February 14, 2010