Wednesday, April 8, 2020

(U.S.) Death count comparisons (War vs COVID-19)

U.S. deaths only; See "Cost of War" below


U.S. WAR DEATHS
VA DATA:
World War I (1917-1918) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide) 4,734,991 Battle Deaths 53,402   
World War II (1941 –1945) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide) 16,112,566 Battle Deaths 291,557   
Korean War (1950-1953) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide) 5,720,000 Total Serving (In Theater) 1,789,000 Battle Deaths 33,739   
Vietnam War (1964-1975) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide)  8,744,000 Deployed to Southeast Asia 7 3,403,000 Battle Deaths  47,434   
Desert Shield/Desert Storm (1990-1991) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide) 2,225,000 Deployed to Gulf 694,550 Battle Deaths 148 
9-11 attack, civilian/Pentagon deaths:
2,977

Iraq war
U.S.: 4,431 deaths

COVID-19 in U.S. (to date)
Deaths 12,754 - April 10: 16,570


* * *
A leading model now estimates tens of thousands fewer covid-19 deaths by summer
Washington Post (4-8-20)
     At a sober press briefing in the White House last week, members of President Trump's coronavirus task force unveiled data supporting the need to continue the national effort to limit the spread of the virus.     Even while maintaining policies aimed at limiting person-to-person contact, the administration projected between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans would die of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. One slide, using data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, showed a predicted peak in the daily death toll from the disease arriving in the middle of April.. . .     Late Tuesday night, however, the IHME estimate shifted in the other direction. While the model last week projected nearly 94,000 deaths by late summer, its new estimate puts the toll by August at 60,400 — a decline of 26 percent from the model’s previous estimate.. . .     This is unequivocally good news, but it carries with it several caveats….


“Costs of War” [Iraq War]
Watson Institute
International & Public Affairs
Brown University
     No one knows with certainty how many people have been killed and wounded in Iraq since the 2003 United States invasion. However, we know that over 182,000 civilians have died from direct war related violence caused by the US, its allies, the Iraqi military and police, and opposition forces from the time of the invasion through November 2018. The violent deaths of Iraqi civilians have occurred through aerial bombing, shelling, gunshots, suicide attacks, and fires started by bombing.     Because not all war-related deaths have been recorded accurately by the Iraqi government and the US-led coalition, the 182,000 figure for civilians killed from 2003 to 2018 is lower than the actual figure.  .. . .     Several estimates based on randomly selected household surveys estimate the approximate numbers of civilians killed, injured, and made sick due to war. These surveys place the total death count among Iraqis in the hundreds of thousands, including nonviolent or indirect deaths….

Iraq: the Human Cost 
[Persian Gulf War]
MIT
     Conventional wisdom in American politics focuses only on American costs in the war in Iraq: the casualties to U.S. soldiers, the financial costs, and sometimes the strategic costs. But the human cost to the Iraqis themselves are nearly ignored in political discourse, the news media, and intellectual circles. This site is a corrective to those oversights. We present empirical reports, studies, and other accounts that convey and assess the consequences of war for the people of Iraq.  . . .     Another household survey, this one conducted by the Iraq Ministry of Health at the same time as the second Hopkins study, found 400,000 excess deaths, 151,000 by violence. As is the case with most such surveys conducted during time of war, there were problems in data gathering and the analysis tended to minimize violent death estimates. But the survey generally confirmed the very high mortality reported in The Lancet.

Estimates of deaths in [Gulf] war still in dispute
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
     With a second Persian Gulf War drawing near, Beth Daponte's telephone has been ringing off the hook with journalists from around the country asking about her estimates of Iraqi casualties in the first one.     Now a research professor at Carnegie Mellon University, Daponte was a 29-year-old demographer at the Commerce Department in 1992, responsible for keeping track of developments in the Middle East, when she estimated that 158,000 Iraqis -- 86,194 men, 39,612 women and 32,195 children -- had perished in the war and its aftermath….

Iraq Sanctions Kill Children, U.N. Reports
New York Times, Dec. 1, 1995
     As many as 576,000 Iraqi children may have died since the end of the Persian Gulf war because of economic sanctions imposed by the Security Council, according to two scientists who surveyed the country for the Food and Agriculture Organization….
  

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not a stat to be proud of but one that will be remembered for a few generations. Life is fragile. How much land does a man need wrote Tolstoy: the answer is six feet.

Anonymous said...

H1N1 virus (Swine flu, 2009), over 17,000 deaths. Obama acted only after 1,000 died. No mass hysteria from the media.

Anonymous said...

April 11--what sources did you draw on for your comment about. I'd like to read more about this. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

This article does a nice job of comparing the 2009 swine flu outbreak with the current coronavirus pandemic - https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html. Between January 2009 and April 2010, there were 18,036 deaths. Contrast that with the current outbreak - first official case was diagnosed on 1/21/2020, with the first deaths on 2/24/2020 (there are indications that there were earlier deaths in California, but the official numbers haven't yet been revised). As of yesterday, 4/29/2020, the CDC official death count is 57,505 (this number does not include deaths from undiagnosed cases, which is thought to be substantial). Covid-19 is *substantially* more contagious and more lethal than the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak - the concern is justified.

And, please 4/11, can we stop with the "what about Obama?" That trope is getting very old.

Roy's obituary in LA Times and Register: "we were lucky to have you while we did"

  This ran in the Sunday December 24, 2023 edition of the Los Angeles Times and the Orange County Register : July 14, 1955 - November 20, 2...