Wednesday, April 8, 2020

(U.S.) Death count comparisons (War vs COVID-19)

U.S. deaths only; See "Cost of War" below


U.S. WAR DEATHS
VA DATA:
World War I (1917-1918) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide) 4,734,991 Battle Deaths 53,402   
World War II (1941 –1945) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide) 16,112,566 Battle Deaths 291,557   
Korean War (1950-1953) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide) 5,720,000 Total Serving (In Theater) 1,789,000 Battle Deaths 33,739   
Vietnam War (1964-1975) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide)  8,744,000 Deployed to Southeast Asia 7 3,403,000 Battle Deaths  47,434   
Desert Shield/Desert Storm (1990-1991) Total U.S. Servicemembers (Worldwide) 2,225,000 Deployed to Gulf 694,550 Battle Deaths 148 
9-11 attack, civilian/Pentagon deaths:
2,977

Iraq war
U.S.: 4,431 deaths

COVID-19 in U.S. (to date)
Deaths 12,754 - April 10: 16,570


* * *
A leading model now estimates tens of thousands fewer covid-19 deaths by summer
Washington Post (4-8-20)
     At a sober press briefing in the White House last week, members of President Trump's coronavirus task force unveiled data supporting the need to continue the national effort to limit the spread of the virus.     Even while maintaining policies aimed at limiting person-to-person contact, the administration projected between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans would die of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus. One slide, using data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, showed a predicted peak in the daily death toll from the disease arriving in the middle of April.. . .     Late Tuesday night, however, the IHME estimate shifted in the other direction. While the model last week projected nearly 94,000 deaths by late summer, its new estimate puts the toll by August at 60,400 — a decline of 26 percent from the model’s previous estimate.. . .     This is unequivocally good news, but it carries with it several caveats….


“Costs of War” [Iraq War]
Watson Institute
International & Public Affairs
Brown University
     No one knows with certainty how many people have been killed and wounded in Iraq since the 2003 United States invasion. However, we know that over 182,000 civilians have died from direct war related violence caused by the US, its allies, the Iraqi military and police, and opposition forces from the time of the invasion through November 2018. The violent deaths of Iraqi civilians have occurred through aerial bombing, shelling, gunshots, suicide attacks, and fires started by bombing.     Because not all war-related deaths have been recorded accurately by the Iraqi government and the US-led coalition, the 182,000 figure for civilians killed from 2003 to 2018 is lower than the actual figure.  .. . .     Several estimates based on randomly selected household surveys estimate the approximate numbers of civilians killed, injured, and made sick due to war. These surveys place the total death count among Iraqis in the hundreds of thousands, including nonviolent or indirect deaths….

Iraq: the Human Cost 
[Persian Gulf War]
MIT
     Conventional wisdom in American politics focuses only on American costs in the war in Iraq: the casualties to U.S. soldiers, the financial costs, and sometimes the strategic costs. But the human cost to the Iraqis themselves are nearly ignored in political discourse, the news media, and intellectual circles. This site is a corrective to those oversights. We present empirical reports, studies, and other accounts that convey and assess the consequences of war for the people of Iraq.  . . .     Another household survey, this one conducted by the Iraq Ministry of Health at the same time as the second Hopkins study, found 400,000 excess deaths, 151,000 by violence. As is the case with most such surveys conducted during time of war, there were problems in data gathering and the analysis tended to minimize violent death estimates. But the survey generally confirmed the very high mortality reported in The Lancet.

Estimates of deaths in [Gulf] war still in dispute
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
     With a second Persian Gulf War drawing near, Beth Daponte's telephone has been ringing off the hook with journalists from around the country asking about her estimates of Iraqi casualties in the first one.     Now a research professor at Carnegie Mellon University, Daponte was a 29-year-old demographer at the Commerce Department in 1992, responsible for keeping track of developments in the Middle East, when she estimated that 158,000 Iraqis -- 86,194 men, 39,612 women and 32,195 children -- had perished in the war and its aftermath….

Iraq Sanctions Kill Children, U.N. Reports
New York Times, Dec. 1, 1995
     As many as 576,000 Iraqi children may have died since the end of the Persian Gulf war because of economic sanctions imposed by the Security Council, according to two scientists who surveyed the country for the Food and Agriculture Organization….
  

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Not a stat to be proud of but one that will be remembered for a few generations. Life is fragile. How much land does a man need wrote Tolstoy: the answer is six feet.

Anonymous said...

H1N1 virus (Swine flu, 2009), over 17,000 deaths. Obama acted only after 1,000 died. No mass hysteria from the media.

Anonymous said...

April 11--what sources did you draw on for your comment about. I'd like to read more about this. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

This article does a nice job of comparing the 2009 swine flu outbreak with the current coronavirus pandemic - https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html. Between January 2009 and April 2010, there were 18,036 deaths. Contrast that with the current outbreak - first official case was diagnosed on 1/21/2020, with the first deaths on 2/24/2020 (there are indications that there were earlier deaths in California, but the official numbers haven't yet been revised). As of yesterday, 4/29/2020, the CDC official death count is 57,505 (this number does not include deaths from undiagnosed cases, which is thought to be substantial). Covid-19 is *substantially* more contagious and more lethal than the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak - the concern is justified.

And, please 4/11, can we stop with the "what about Obama?" That trope is getting very old.

8-14: do you regret all the lying?

✅ Trump Encourages Racist Conspiracy Theory on Kamala Harris’s Eligibility to Be Vice President NYT ✅ Orange County Sees Overall Coronavirus...

Goals and Values and Twaddle

blather: long-winded talk with no real substance*
The whole concept of MSLOs [measurable student learning outcomes] as the latest fad in education is somewhat akin to the now discredited fad of the '90's, Total Quality Management, or TQM. Essentially, the ACCJC adopted MSLOs as the overarching basis for accrediting community colleges based on their faith in the theoretical treatises of a movement.... After repeated requests for research showing that such use of MSLOs is effective, none has been forthcoming from the ACCJC [accreditors]. Prior to large scale imposition of such a requirement at all institutions, research should be provided to establish that continuous monitoring of MSLOs has resulted in measurable improvements in student success at a given institution. No such research is forthcoming because there is none….
The Accountability Game…., Leon F. Marzillier (Academic Senate for California Community Colleges, October, 2002)
In the summer of ’13, I offered a critique of the awkward verbiage by which the district and colleges explain their values, goals, and objectives —aka SOCCCD'S G&V (goals and values) blather.
I wrote a post each for the district, Saddleback College, and Irvine Valley College efforts. (See the links below.)
This verbiage—stated in terms of “values,” “missions,” “goals,” “visions,” and whatnot—is often badly written. It is sometimes embarrassingly trite.
It occasionally communicates something worthwhile.
No doubt you are familiar with the usual objections to jargon. Higher education, too, has its jargon—an irony, given typical college-level instruction in writing, which urges jargon eschewery.
Sure enough, SOCCCD G&V blather is riddled with jargon and with terms misused and abused. For instance, in the case of the district’s dubious blather, the so-called “vision” is actually a purpose. Why didn't they just call it that?
As one slogs through this prattle, one finds that "visions" tend to be awfully similar to “missions,” with which they are distinguished. The latter in turn are awfully similar to “goals,” which must be distinguished from “objectives.” But aren't goals and objectives pretty much the same thing?
These perverse word games will surely perplex or annoy anyone armed with a command of the English language. In fact, readers will be perplexed to the degree that they are thus armed. Illiterates, of course, will be untroubled.
Here's a simple point: the district and colleges’ G&V blather tends to eschew good, plain English in favor of technical terms and trendy words and phrases (i.e., it tends to be bullshitty and vague). Thus, one encounters such trendy terminological turds as “dynamic,” “diversity,” “student success,” and “student-centered.” Even meretricious neologisms such as ISLOs and “persistence rates” pop up, unexplained, undefended.
Does anyone see a transparency problem with all of this? Shouldn't the public, or at least the well educated public, be able to comprehend statements of the colleges' goals and values?
In the case of the district, to its credit, all it really seems to want to say is that it wants to teach well and it wants students to succeed. Admirable!
So why all the ugly, common-sense defying, buzzword-encrusted claptrap?

Districtular poppycock: our “vision” and our “mission” and our tolerance of twaddle - July 31, 2013

THEY BUZZ: Saddleback College's "Mission, Vision, and Values" - August 4, 2013

IVC’s vision, mission, and goals: nonsense on stilts - August 5, 2013

THE IRVINE VALLEY CHRONICLES: no ideas, just clichés & buzzwords - Sep 30, 2013

*From my Apple laptop's dictionary