Saturday, August 11, 2018

This Fire, this morning

Again, the small green dots at left represent the Reb's place (upper) and my place (lower).
The fire is much bigger than it was 24 hours ago. But it has not yet (it seems) crossed westward
past Santiago Peak. The fire is very big, but its rate of growth has shrunk considerably in the
last 12 or so hours. Wind is 5 mph and headed east. Containment is about 30%. So things
are looking up.
Here is the latest update from the US Forest Service:

Steep inaccessible terrain continues to be a factor to spread into new areas and align for strong head fire runs and lateral movement. Fire continues to spread east and north with only limited spread to the west. The fire will continue to impact subdivisions along the foothills of Riverside County. There remains the daily potential for an "Elsinore" down slope event. The fire spread will be an impact to Orange County Subdivision of El Cariso Village. The atmosphere over the fire continues to be very unstable and will allow for large smoke column development and active to extreme fire behavior. Fire continues to directly impact communities during the next shift.

The incident has issued mandatory evacuation notices for Mayhew/Sycamore Creek, Glen Eden, Machado and South El Cariso, Riverside and voluntary evacuations in Shoreline zones. The evacuation area covers 7,449 single family homes and numerous commercial structures with estimated evacuees totaling 21,484 people.
There are hard road closures for the areas under evacuation order. Until these closures are lifted, residents are not permitted back to check on or get small animals.
After completing a structure assessment in the Holy Jim community, there are 12 confirmed structures lost during the initial attack phase of the fire.
The incident is now in unified command with US Forest Service, CAL Fire, Riverside County Fire, Orange County Fire Authority, and the California Highway Patrol.

Forecasted weather for the fire area will see temperatures between 91-97 and relative humidity of 30-40 percent and could see gusty winds to 25 mph from the west and strong down slope winds on the eastern slopes of the fire. These conditions will increase the likelihood of extreme fire behavior as well as heat illness issues for the firefighters and the public. Monsoonal moisture coupled with an approaching eastern hurricane will increase instability and bring scattered thunderstorms to portions of Southeastern California. This combination will result in a period of near critical fire weather over the Holy Fire. Drying and warming over the weekend with gusty local winds with midlevel moisture will return to the area leading to more instability, gusty winds and a chance for thunderstorms.

No comments:

8-14: do you regret all the lying?

✅ Trump Encourages Racist Conspiracy Theory on Kamala Harris’s Eligibility to Be Vice President NYT ✅ Orange County Sees Overall Coronavirus...

Goals and Values and Twaddle

blather: long-winded talk with no real substance*
The whole concept of MSLOs [measurable student learning outcomes] as the latest fad in education is somewhat akin to the now discredited fad of the '90's, Total Quality Management, or TQM. Essentially, the ACCJC adopted MSLOs as the overarching basis for accrediting community colleges based on their faith in the theoretical treatises of a movement.... After repeated requests for research showing that such use of MSLOs is effective, none has been forthcoming from the ACCJC [accreditors]. Prior to large scale imposition of such a requirement at all institutions, research should be provided to establish that continuous monitoring of MSLOs has resulted in measurable improvements in student success at a given institution. No such research is forthcoming because there is none….
The Accountability Game…., Leon F. Marzillier (Academic Senate for California Community Colleges, October, 2002)
In the summer of ’13, I offered a critique of the awkward verbiage by which the district and colleges explain their values, goals, and objectives —aka SOCCCD'S G&V (goals and values) blather.
I wrote a post each for the district, Saddleback College, and Irvine Valley College efforts. (See the links below.)
This verbiage—stated in terms of “values,” “missions,” “goals,” “visions,” and whatnot—is often badly written. It is sometimes embarrassingly trite.
It occasionally communicates something worthwhile.
No doubt you are familiar with the usual objections to jargon. Higher education, too, has its jargon—an irony, given typical college-level instruction in writing, which urges jargon eschewery.
Sure enough, SOCCCD G&V blather is riddled with jargon and with terms misused and abused. For instance, in the case of the district’s dubious blather, the so-called “vision” is actually a purpose. Why didn't they just call it that?
As one slogs through this prattle, one finds that "visions" tend to be awfully similar to “missions,” with which they are distinguished. The latter in turn are awfully similar to “goals,” which must be distinguished from “objectives.” But aren't goals and objectives pretty much the same thing?
These perverse word games will surely perplex or annoy anyone armed with a command of the English language. In fact, readers will be perplexed to the degree that they are thus armed. Illiterates, of course, will be untroubled.
Here's a simple point: the district and colleges’ G&V blather tends to eschew good, plain English in favor of technical terms and trendy words and phrases (i.e., it tends to be bullshitty and vague). Thus, one encounters such trendy terminological turds as “dynamic,” “diversity,” “student success,” and “student-centered.” Even meretricious neologisms such as ISLOs and “persistence rates” pop up, unexplained, undefended.
Does anyone see a transparency problem with all of this? Shouldn't the public, or at least the well educated public, be able to comprehend statements of the colleges' goals and values?
In the case of the district, to its credit, all it really seems to want to say is that it wants to teach well and it wants students to succeed. Admirable!
So why all the ugly, common-sense defying, buzzword-encrusted claptrap?

Districtular poppycock: our “vision” and our “mission” and our tolerance of twaddle - July 31, 2013

THEY BUZZ: Saddleback College's "Mission, Vision, and Values" - August 4, 2013

IVC’s vision, mission, and goals: nonsense on stilts - August 5, 2013

THE IRVINE VALLEY CHRONICLES: no ideas, just clichés & buzzwords - Sep 30, 2013

*From my Apple laptop's dictionary