10-23: Brace for the future

✅Orange County Could See Second Coronavirus Wave by Winter 

As a potential second wave looms, some Supervisors continue pushing back against state virus guidelines. 

—Voice of OC 

     State public health officials and local epidemiologists warn there is likely going to be a second wave of Coronavirus spikes in the coming months, based on experiences in other parts of the country and world. 

      “So we’re going to have either a fall/winter wave or a winter wave — a second wave. I can’t exactly tell you when that wave will crest,” said Andrew Noymer, a public health expert and epidemiologist at UC Irvine. 

      “We had this big wave in the summertime, in June/July. everyone remembers that. But that’s not the epidemic. This epidemic is going to have waves — plural. That wave that has now come and gone, that’s not the epidemic gone and over,” Noymer said in a Wednesday phone interview. 

     Secretary of the state Health and Human Services Agency, Dr. Mark Ghaly, said hospitalizations could increase by next month. 

      “We predict a 46 percent increase a month from now. So down from where we were before, but still an area of concern,” he said at a Tuesday news conference. “Many states across the nation and frankly nations across the globe are facing new waves of cases,” Ghaly said. 

      Dr. Thomas Cesario, an infectious disease doctor and former dean of the UC Irvine School of Medicine, also said things look to be trending back up. 

Valery Boothby (1906-1982)
German actress

      “Looks like we’ve had a little uptick. So I think that second wave may be quite likely,” Cesario said in a Thursday phone interview. “I don’t know it’ll be as bad as the first, but I think it’s entirely possible we’re going to see a blip.” 

      “If you look at the curve, across the country, you can see that curve starts to go back up again,” Cesario said. 

     Dr. Matthew Zahn, medical director of the county Health Care Agency’s communicable disease control division, also said he expects an uptick. 

     “I think that we are all anticipating a potential increase in the number of cases simply because we are entering cold and flu season,” Zahn said at a Thursday news conference. “The idea is that as it gets colder and people go inside and crowd inside more often.” 

     But, Zahn said, if people follow current public health safety measures, it may be avoidable. 

     During the summer case spikes, over 700 people were hospitalized at one point in July.

     The spikes came after an intense mask debate in OC after former health officer Dr. Nichole Quick issued a mask order before the Memorial Day reopenings, which saw restaurants and other businesses rush to reopen their doors. 

     The mask order sparked protests and prompted a public backlash, with Quick eventually resigned by early June after receiving scores of threats, including one Supervisor Michelle Steel classified as a “death threat.” Since the pandemic began in March, the virus has killed 1,434 county residents out of 57,848 confirmed cases, according to the county Health Care Agency.

 . . . 

     “Basically Orange County is just plotting along,” Noymer said. “There’s every reason to expect a fall wave and all that. Our summer wave was quite late. So the fall wave will probably be a little later. I’m expecting more waves.” 

    [Supervisor Michelle] Steel continues to rail against state virus guidelines, including the health equity measure, which requires less than a 5.2 percent positivity rate in the county’s poorest neighborhoods. 

 . . . 

     Steel and other county supervisors have been pushing for Disneyland to reopen. 

     UC Irvine economist Ami Glazer said reopening Disneyland likely won’t fix the county’s budget woes like officials are hoping for. 

     “Transportation is down 46 percent. It has had some increase since July, but not dramatically. But that suggests that tourism, if Disney does open, it’s not going to have a huge effect. And we know that from Disney World in Orlando,” Glazer said…. 

✅It Was the Worst Day of the Pandemic. The U.S. Is Almost There Again. 

The United States reported more new cases of the coronavirus on July 16 than on any other day of the last seven months. The country is now nearing that record. 

—NYT

✅Covid-19 hospitalizations have risen in 38 states over the past week 

—WashPo 

✅America is poised to enter into its worst stretch yet of the pandemic 

—WashPo

✅Wearing masks could save more than 100,000 US lives through February, new study suggests

—CNN

[Could, but won't.]

Masato "Mas" Hayashi

IVC Family, 

On behalf of Irvine Valley College, I would like to extend condolences to the family, friends, and colleagues of retired IVC math professor Masato "Mas" Hayashi who passed away peacefully on September 25 at the age of 81. Private services were held on October 17. Professor Hayashi joined the District in January 1979 as one of the founding faculty of the Saddleback College North Campus. He retired in July 2014. We will remember Professor Hayashi not only for his kindness, generosity, and sense of humor but also for his 35 dedicated years of service to our students. An endowed scholarship has been created through the IVC Foundation in his memory and to honor his teaching career. If you would like to contribute, you can do so here. 

Sincerely, 

Dr. John Hernandez John Hernandez, PhD 

President Irvine Valley College

Notice in OC Register, Oct 21: here

Europe's "second wave"

     WOW, things are really bad in parts of Europe, Covid-wise. Check out this NYT article that lays it all out:

Where Europe’s Second Wave Is Filling Up Hospitals

MEANWHILE, IN ORANGE COUNTY:

10-22: Students cheat. What to do? PLUS James Randi dies (What to do?)

✅Students Cheat. How Much Does It Matter? 

As the pandemic continues, the debate grows louder. 

—CHE 

✅OC Prosecutors ‘Inappropriately Abandoned’ Plan to Tell Defendants About Informant Violations, DA Says 

—Voice of OC 

     Orange County prosecutors “inappropriately abandoned” their plans to notify defendants about informant violations after an appeals court found prosecutors had systemically violated defendants’ rights with the illegal informant program, according to a little-noticed passage in a report by DA Todd Spitzer’s office that’s sparking a new round of cover-up accusations. 

     The report, issued in June by DA special prosecutor Pat Dixon, centers on Orange County’s biggest law enforcement scandal in decades – centered on misuse of jailhouse informants and lies in court testimony that hid evidence of the wrongdoing that led to the entire DA’s office being kicked off the biggest mass murder case in the county’s history. 

     The report notes that in June 2016, after the informant violations were exposed in court, then-DA Tony Rackauckas announced his office would review a key internal document in the scandal, known as the “special handling log,” and disclose evidence of wrongdoing by law enforcement that had been wrongfully kept secret from defendants and courts. 

     But the DA’s office wrongfully dropped it, according to the special investigation commissioned by the current DA…. 

✅Top defense attorney accuses OC authorities of withholding evidence on untold number of cases 

—OC Reg 

✅Is It Time for All Students to Take Ethnic Studies? 

As ethnic studies requirements are put in place in California, capping years of struggle, educators discuss why it's important to talk about race in the classroom. 

—Inside Higher Ed 

✅Cal State Fullerton raises the flag to support National Coming Out Day 

—OC Reg 

✅DHS Arrests International Students, Threatens College Staff for ‘Willful Ignorance’ of Student-Visa Program 

—CHE 

✅Early voter turnout smashing California election records -- More than 4.5 million Californians have already cast ballots in the 2020 general election — and there’re still 12 days to go. Roughly one-fifth of the 21.5 million ballots mailed to registered voters had been processed as of Tuesday evening, blowing away previous election totals. Dylan Svoboda CalMatters -- 10/22/20 

✅‘Tweeting at the television doesn’t fix things.’ Obama chastises Trump at rally for Biden -- Former President Obama castigated President Trump as he hit the campaign trail for the first time in person Wednesday in Philadelphia to stump for his former vice president, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Matt Pearce in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/22/20 

✅California has escaped the national surge in coronavirus cases. But new dangers lie ahead -- They credit Gov. Gavin Newsom’s overhauled system — introduced Aug. 28 and much tougher than the state’s disastrous first reopening — as a big reason for California having so far staved off a new surge in cases. Rong-Gong Lin II in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/21/20

✅James Randi, Magician Who Debunked Paranormal Claims, Dies at 92 

Known professionally as the Amazing Randi, he dedicated his life to exposing seers who did not see, healers who did not heal and many others. 

NYT

James Randi, RIP

10-21: $100 million gift to Cal community colleges; young people voting early; Covid spreading "uncontrollably"—but not in Cal; OC hate crimes rise, natch

✅$100M for California Community Colleges 

—Inside Higher Ed 

     California's community colleges just received the largest donation to community colleges in history, according to a news release from the California Community Colleges Chancellor's Office. 

     The Jay Pritzker Foundation, named after the founder of Hyatt Hotels, has pledged $100 million to the Foundation for California Community Colleges to be spent over the next two decades. The money will go toward scholarships for students who are close to completing a degree or certificate or who are transferring to a university. It will also provide funds for emergency financial aid for students. 

✅Report: Hate crimes rise again in Orange County 

—OC Reg 

✅Chapman University opens campus to undergrads for in-person learning 

—OC Reg 

✅The Souls of Black Professors 

Scholars discuss what it’s like to be a Black professor in 2020, who should be doing antiracist work on campus and why diversity interventions that attempt to “fix” Black academics for a rigged game miss the point entirely. 

—Inside Higher Ed 

✅Colleges Sue Trump AdministrationOver H-1B Rules 

Colleges say new rules on H-1B visas from Trump administration would make it hard if not impossible to retain international researchers and professors. 

—Inside Higher Ed 

✅Where Are Most International Students? Stranded Here, Needing Colleges’ Help 

—CHE

✅More Than Half a Million Young People Have Already Voted 

—Inside Higher Ed 

     Younger voters are apparently heeding urgings to vote early. A Tufts University study finds that, as of Oct. 14, over a half a million more voters aged 18 to 29 had already voted in this year’s election in 13 key states compared to the same date in 2016. 

✅Healthcare for millions of Californians is on the line in the election -- California has done more over the last decade than almost any other state to expand health insurance, bolster services for its most vulnerable residents and improve the quality of its clinics and hospitals. Noam N. Levey in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/21/20 

✅Democrats want the names of voters who used GOP drop boxes. Now they’re going to court -- California Republicans refuse to hand over information about who used their unofficial ballot drop boxes. Now, state Democratic leaders are taking them to court. Lara Korte in the Sacramento Bee Michael Lozano CalMatters John Myers in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/21/20 

✅A Black woman will lead CHP for first time as Newsom appoints Amanda Ray to lead agency -- Amanda Ray, 54, of Sacramento, will become commissioner on Nov. 17, according to the release from Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office. Newsom appointed Ray, who is currently a deputy commissioner with the department, to the leadership post. Wes Venteicher in the Sacramento Bee$ -- 10/21/20 

✅Coronavirus spreading ‘uncontrollably’ in much of U.S. — but not California. Here’s why -- Seven months into the pandemic, the coronavirus is spreading rampantly across much of the U.S. — with California a very notable exception. Annie Vainshtein in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 10/21/20 

✅African American, Latinx Communities In “Survival Mode” As Pandemic Enters Seventh Month -- African Americans and Latinx people continue to bear the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the start of the pandemic, the two groups have been more likely than others to test positive for the virus, die from the virus, and become unemployed due to the economic shutdowns. Sarah Mizes-Tan Capital Public Radio -- 10/21/20 

✅For first time, heads of all California’s public education systems are Black or Latino -- California is the most diverse state in the nation, so having a diverse leadership of its schools and colleges shouldn’t be that notable. But it is. Even for California. Louis Freedberg EdSource -- 10/21/20 

✅Trump administration launches antitrust salvo against Google -- The Justice Department and several Republican-led states filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google on Tuesday, unleashing the might of the U.S. government against one of Silicon Valley's most powerful companies. Leah Nylen Politico -- 10/20/20 

OC Covid, cases per day

OC Covid, deaths per day

Make that: 300,000 deaths from Covid (in US); and the worst is yet to come

✅300,000 more people across the country had died than would be expected in a typical year 

—Washington Post 

     The pandemic has led to at least 80,000 more U.S. deaths than the official toll records, according to a report on excess mortality released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 

     The country's tally of confirmed coronavirus deaths stood at about 220,000 as of this afternoon. But the CDC analysis found that, by early October, nearly 300,000 more people across the country had died than would be expected in a typical year. The hidden fatalities are believed to be people who died of covid-19 without being diagnosed, or who died of other causes because they were unwilling or unable to seek medical care during the outbreak. 

      The pandemic's shadow death toll also includes a surprisingly large number of victims in their 20s, 30s and 40s. “The number of people dying from this pandemic is higher than we think,” said Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, who has conducted similar studies on excess fatalities. He told The Washington Post that the United States will likely suffer at least 400,000 excess deaths by the year's end.

✅Covid-19 Live Updates: A Third Coronavirus Surge Has Taken Root in the U.S.  

—NYT 

     After weeks of spread and warnings in certain areas, a third surge of coronavirus infections has now firmly taken hold across much of the United States. 

     The latest wave — which is raging most acutely in the Midwest and West, but is also spreading in various areas around the country — threatens to be the worst of the pandemic yet.

✅Today's OC Covid numbers: 302 new cases; 2 new deaths

Click on graphic

10-20: Women Are Falling Behind

✅Hate Crimes Spiking Across Orange County, Up 89 Percent Since 2015, According to New Report 

It comes amid national focus on rising hate crimes, especially against Asian Americans during the pandemic. 

—Voice of OC 

     “In 2019, there were 83 reported hate crimes in Orange County, a 24% increase from 2018. Of the cases motivated by race, ethnicity and national origin, 53% were driven by anti-black racism. Of the cases motivated by religion, 52% were driven by anti-Semitism,” said OC supervisors’ Chairwoman Michelle Steel in a statement announcing the report. 

 . . . 

     Activists have criticized President Trump for using the term “China virus” and “kung flu” to describe the virus, warning it feeds into racist incidents against Asians, while supporters of the president say it’s accurate for him to say the virus came from China. 

     Trump’s use of the term has drawn criticism from some in his own party like Young Kim, a Republican candidate for the competitive 39th Congressional District in North Orange County. 

     “The President’s continued use of terms associating COVID-19 with the [Asian American and Pacific Islander] community is hurtful to many across our diverse nation,” Kim wrote in a Facebook post the day after the president called the coronavirus “kung flu” at a June rally. 

     “As I have said in the past, no American of any race or ethnic group, is responsible for this virus. Our leaders should be working to unite Americans to defeat this unprecedented pandemic and the President’s words last night did not do that,” Kim wrote. 

     Others, including Steel, have supported the president’s use of the term, noting the virus originated from China. 

     “You know what? It started from China, so that is what he is calling it,” Steel said in late March. 

✅Women Are Falling Behind 

Large-scale study backs up other research showing relative declines in women's research productivity during COVID-19. 

—Inside Higher Ed 

✅Report: 28% of College Students Come From Immigrant Families 

—Inside Higher Ed 

     Students from immigrant families accounted for 28 percent of all U.S. college students in 2018, up from 20 percent in 2000, according to a new analysis by the Migration Policy Institute commissioned by the Presidents' Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration. The number of students from immigrant families -- those who were either born abroad or born in the U.S. to immigrant parents -- grew at a much faster rate than the number of U.S.-born students with U.S.-born parents. 

✅A Raft of Pay-Gap Lawsuits Suggests Little Progress for Academic Women. Why Is That? 

—CHE

✅COVID-19 death toll nears 17,000 in California -- While the number of daily COVID-19 deaths has fallen dramatically in California in the last few months, the state’s death toll has become the third-highest in the nation, with nearly 17,000 lives lost. Luke Money in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/20/20 

✅California’s feared surge of virus cases hasn’t happened -- Near the end of September, with coronavirus cases falling and more schools and businesses reopening, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration urged restraint, citing a statistical model that predicted a startling 89% increase in virus hospitalizations in the next month. Adam Beam Associated Press -- 10/20/20 

✅Candidates, outside groups spend nearly $39 million on Orange County House races -- Candidates have raised a combined $44.9 million and spent $27.5 million so far in the seven House races that touch Orange County, according to the latest campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. Brooke Staggs in the Orange County Register -- 10/20/20 

✅California officials see boon in Biden’s climate plan -- Biden plans to use California as a template for a frenzy of advancements in clean energy and environmental justice. The state would reap big benefits. Evan Halper, Anna M. Phillips in the San Diego Union-Tribune$ -- 10/20/20 

✅Pandemic-fueled safety fears fuel gun purchases in California -- Fears of unrest, early release of prisoners, government overreach, even government collapse, led an estimated 110,000 Californians to purchase firearms in the early months of the pandemic, say UC Davis researchers. Darrell Smith in the Sacramento Bee$ -- 10/20/20 

✅A look at Orange County as first in a wave of school reopenings in California -- The reopening of hundreds of Orange County schools for in-person instruction over the last month — the largest return to school in a major metropolitan area in California so far this year — is likely to be a test case for the rest of the state. Diana Lambert EdSource -- 10/19/20