Friday, October 23, 2020

10-23: Brace for the future

✅Orange County Could See Second Coronavirus Wave by Winter
 
As a potential second wave looms, some Supervisors continue pushing back against state virus guidelines. 
—Voice of OC 
     State public health officials and local epidemiologists warn there is likely going to be a second wave of Coronavirus spikes in the coming months, based on experiences in other parts of the country and world. 
      “So we’re going to have either a fall/winter wave or a winter wave — a second wave. I can’t exactly tell you when that wave will crest,” said Andrew Noymer, a public health expert and epidemiologist at UC Irvine. 
      “We had this big wave in the summertime, in June/July. everyone remembers that. But that’s not the epidemic. This epidemic is going to have waves — plural. That wave that has now come and gone, that’s not the epidemic gone and over,” Noymer said in a Wednesday phone interview. 
     Secretary of the state Health and Human Services Agency, Dr. Mark Ghaly, said hospitalizations could increase by next month. 
      “We predict a 46 percent increase a month from now. So down from where we were before, but still an area of concern,” he said at a Tuesday news conference. “Many states across the nation and frankly nations across the globe are facing new waves of cases,” Ghaly said. 
      Dr. Thomas Cesario, an infectious disease doctor and former dean of the UC Irvine School of Medicine, also said things look to be trending back up. 
Valery Boothby (1906-1982)
German actress
      “Looks like we’ve had a little uptick. So I think that second wave may be quite likely,” Cesario said in a Thursday phone interview. “I don’t know it’ll be as bad as the first, but I think it’s entirely possible we’re going to see a blip.” 
      “If you look at the curve, across the country, you can see that curve starts to go back up again,” Cesario said. 
     Dr. Matthew Zahn, medical director of the county Health Care Agency’s communicable disease control division, also said he expects an uptick. 
     “I think that we are all anticipating a potential increase in the number of cases simply because we are entering cold and flu season,” Zahn said at a Thursday news conference. “The idea is that as it gets colder and people go inside and crowd inside more often.” 
     But, Zahn said, if people follow current public health safety measures, it may be avoidable
     During the summer case spikes, over 700 people were hospitalized at one point in July.
     The spikes came after an intense mask debate in OC after former health officer Dr. Nichole Quick issued a mask order before the Memorial Day reopenings, which saw restaurants and other businesses rush to reopen their doors. 
     The mask order sparked protests and prompted a public backlash, with Quick eventually resigned by early June after receiving scores of threats, including one Supervisor Michelle Steel classified as a “death threat.” Since the pandemic began in March, the virus has killed 1,434 county residents out of 57,848 confirmed cases, according to the county Health Care Agency.
 . . . 
     “Basically Orange County is just plotting along,” Noymer said. “There’s every reason to expect a fall wave and all that. Our summer wave was quite late. So the fall wave will probably be a little later. I’m expecting more waves.” 
    [Supervisor Michelle] Steel continues to rail against state virus guidelines, including the health equity measure, which requires less than a 5.2 percent positivity rate in the county’s poorest neighborhoods. 
 . . . 
     Steel and other county supervisors have been pushing for Disneyland to reopen. 
     UC Irvine economist Ami Glazer said reopening Disneyland likely won’t fix the county’s budget woes like officials are hoping for. 
     “Transportation is down 46 percent. It has had some increase since July, but not dramatically. But that suggests that tourism, if Disney does open, it’s not going to have a huge effect. And we know that from Disney World in Orlando,” Glazer said…. 

The United States reported more new cases of the coronavirus on July 16 than on any other day of the last seven months. The country is now nearing that record. 
—NYT

—WashPo 

—WashPo

—CNN

[Could, but won't.]

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Saturday October 24 is the one year anniversary of Glenn's departure. It's also the two year anniversary of him doing nothing after swastikas appeared on campus.

Anonymous said...

He's GONE: THAT'S A LOT TO BE THANKFUL FOR.

Roy's obituary in LA Times and Register: "we were lucky to have you while we did"

  This ran in the Sunday December 24, 2023 edition of the Los Angeles Times and the Orange County Register : July 14, 1955 - November 20, 2...