Thursday, November 5, 2020

Some OC election results (not yet final numbers)


     Chris McDonald is 4 votes (!) behind the frontrunner in his Lake Forest City Council race (District 1). Will there be a recount? [See tally here.]
     Nothing else has changed, really. Porter (House of Reps) had an easy win against knuckle-dragger Raths. SOCCCD trustee incumbents (Wright, Jemal), because they are incumbents, sailed to victory, though one might have thought they'd get better numbers (and challenger Dacks did surprisingly well). Inmon replaces Lang, and that's great. Irvine City Council is transformed in a good way, I think.
     UPDATE (7:30 pm): as a reader observed, McDonald is now up by a few votes.
     UPDATE (11-6): McDonald is down by 33 votes.

Turns out, Chris is behind Cirbo by 4 votes

No real change here

Nor here

Nor here

Nor here


11-5: The young preferred Biden—except young white men; OC Supes fail to acknowledge "equity" health efforts, pushing back on "tiers"; Covid future in US dismal (thanks, Don)

—Voice of OC 
     Orange County Supervisors have yet to publicly acknowledge their county health officer, Dr. Clayton Chau’s, push to address chronic health conditions in poor neighborhoods, and instead continue to fight against the state’s business reopening system. 
     Chau, also the director of the OC Health Care Agency, announced the creation of a new agency position to work with nonprofits and community organizations to get into neighborhoods that are hit the hardest by the virus.… 
     “The pandemic truly brings and pushes the issue of health equity to the forefront and these issues existed way before the pandemic,” Chau said at a news conference last Thursday. “Not only in Orange County, but all over our state and country.” 
     Yet not one county Supervisor mentioned the community health effort or asked Chau about it at Tuesday’s coronavirus update during their most recent regular public meeting. 
     Instead, Supervisor Chairwoman Michelle Steel fought back against the four-tiered reopening system and wants some type of credit from state public health officials for empty hospital beds so OC can reopen more businesses. 
     And last month, county Supervisors fought back against the state requirement that counties lower positivity rates in the hardest hit areas before moving into the next tier on the state’s business reopening system — known as the health equity metric…. 

Orange County holds out in red tier as coronavirus case rate climbs -- Two weeks of growing rates of coronavirus cases have shunted Orange County off track from advancing to the less-restrictive orange tier of the state’s pandemic tracking system. Instead, the county is backpedaling toward the most-restrictive purple tier, according to state health department data released Wednesday, Nov. 4. Ian Wheeler in the Orange County Register -- 11/5/20 

After election, Irvine looks poised to change its mayor and half its council 
—OC Reg 

Analysis finds voters under age 30 preferred Biden over all, with young people of color voting for him by the largest margins. Young white men preferred Trump. 
—Inside Higher Ed 

Why affirmative action measure failed in California -- In a year in which the nation was confronted with racial injustice and a divisive presidential contest inflamed its partisan divide, advocates fighting to reinstate affirmative action programs in the deep-blue state of California saw the November election as their best opportunity in decades. Phil Willon, Teresa Watanabe in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 11/5/20

Even if Biden wins, Bay Area Democrats are horrified 68 million voters backed Trump -- Instead, even as Biden’s electoral path to the White House improved Wednesday, Democrats remained shell shocked that President Trump didn’t just keep his base, he expanded it by nearly 5 million voters. Julia Prodis Sulek in the San Jose Mercury$ -- 11/5/20 

Trump and his allies boost bogus conspiracy theories in a bid to undermine vote count -- President Trump, his son and top members of his campaign on Wednesday advanced a set of unfounded conspiracy theories about the vote-tallying process to claim that Democrats were rigging the final count. Isaac Stanley-Becker, Tony Romm, Elizabeth Dwoskin and Drew Harwell in the Washington Post$ -- 11/5/20 

—Inside Higher Ed 

—WashPo (Opinion)

—CNN
     ...The United States reported its highest number of new coronavirus infections in a single day -- 102,831 on Wednesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. 
     And it's not just due to more testing. New cases have increased 21% over the past week, according to Johns Hopkins. But testing has only increased 4.52% over the past week, according to the Covid Tracking Project....

From NYT

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Some OC election results (thus far)


For more up-to-date numbers, go HERE

More OC Blueness

Yep, that's our Chris McDonald; he'll be busy, I guess
UPDATE [6:48 pm, Nov 4): at present, McDonald has 1,687 votes to Doug Cirbo’s 1,691.
UPDATE [Nov 13: Cirbo is up by 17 votes. No trend.]

Shea loses! Agran and crew might be in

The only surprise here: how well Ryan Dack did against the incumbent, Wright

Porter prevailed as expected. But 46% wanted the odious Raths? Geez.


OC's Covid numbers today

CNN

11-4: The media and pollsters blew it again; Online cheating surges during pandemic; Young voters—when not cheating online—choose Biden

—New York Times: “The Morning” 
     Joe Biden is now the favorite to win the presidency, and Republicans are favored to keep Senate control — but both results are far from certain. And Democrats failed to win the resounding victory that pre-election polls had suggested they could....
     The outcome is unclear in six swing states — Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and all are still counting votes. We may get some final vote counts today, while others could take a few days. 
    “Biden’s the favorite, even if narrowly, just about everywhere,” Nate Cohn of The Times tweeted, listing five of the six states above (all but North Carolina). Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics agreed: “Would probably rather be Biden than Trump.”....

Online cheating surges during the pandemic; universities struggle to find a solution -- Like students everywhere during the pandemic, Aguilar, a junior at San Francisco State University, was attending school and taking a test from home under the watchful eye of no one. It would have been easy to Google the answer, and Aguilar admits he was tempted. But he didn’t. Nanette Asimov in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 11/3/20 

—Inside Higher Ed 
     Young voters aged 18 to 29 supported Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a nearly two-to-one margin in the election, according to an analysis of Associated Press polling data by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, in Massachusetts.
      The Tufts institute estimated that 62 percent of young voters voted for former vice president Biden, while 33 percent voted for Trump…. 

—CHE 

—WashPo 

Presidential election hangs in balance as Trump falsely asserts fraud and makes a claim of victory -- The presidential election in a country convulsed by crisis was headed toward a potential legal showdown early Wednesday morning, with President Trump prematurely declaring he had won even as Democratic nominee Joe Biden had paths to victory and key states continued to tally votes. Philip Rucker, Toluse Olorunnipa and Annie Linskey in the Washington Post$ -- 11/4/20 

Prop. 16: Voters rejecting a measure to restore affirmative action in government agencies and public universities -- California was poised to retain its ban on affirmative action for government agencies and public universities, with voters rejecting a ballot measure that would again allow the consideration of race and sex in state hiring, contracting and admissions decisions. Alexei Koseff in the San Francisco Chronicle$ Thomas Peele EdSource-- 11/4/20 

Orange County investigates report of fake polling site, complete with ‘I Voted’ stickers -- Orange County officials said Tuesday that they were investigating reports that someone established a fake voting center at the headquarters of a City Council candidate in Westminster and accepted ballots and handed out “I Voted” stickers. Adam Elmahrek in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 11/4/20 

California, 3 other states sue to allow new immigrant applications to DACA program -- The Trump administration is ignoring the law and a Supreme Court ruling by slashing eligibility for DACA, the program allowing young undocumented immigrants to live and work legally in the United States, California and three other states said in a lawsuit Monday. Bob Egelko in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 11/4/20 

—Inside Higher Ed 
     Peter Sysak, president of the Cuesta College Board of Trustees, is under fire because of numerous comments he posted on his personal Facebook page about a large number of marginalized groups -- comments that one instructor described as "disparaging and so derogatory," the San Luis Obispo Tribune reported....
      “We live in a society where homosexuals lecture us on morals, transvestites lecture us on human biology, baby killers lecture us on human rights and socialists lecture us on economics,” read one post that Sysak shared to his page. The post was originally shared by Occupy Snowflakes….

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

11-3: publicly silent, privately disgusted

As the U.S. votes, the world watches with anxiety, taunts and hope 
—WashPo 

—WashPo 

—Politico 
     At rallies across the Midwest and Sun Belt swing states, President Donald Trump has been openly discussing murky schemes to prevent legitimate ballots from being counted, escalating threats to disenfranchise millions of American as the weeks-long voting season ends tonight and his pathway to reelection becomes increasingly narrow. 
     “The Election should end on Nov. 3, not weeks later!” the president said on Friday. He repeated the claim at an event in Dubuque, Iowa on Sunday, adding falsely, “That’s the way it's been, and that’s the way it should be.” 
     Democrats have been clear in their condemnations of the president’s comments, which they consider the most worrisome of Trump’s four years in office, which were often marked by anti-democratic rhetoric.
. . . 
     But most Republicans, from critics to allies of Trump, have remained publicly silent. It’s not new for Trump’s party brethren to duck and cover when he says something troubling. But after five years of perfecting the art of explaining how they “didn’t see the tweet” — the much parodied talking point to which Republicans on Capitol Hill often resort — it is shocking but not surprising that they aren’t speaking up now, even when the integrity of America’s electoral system is under attack by their party’s leader…. 

As Election Day Arrives, Trump Shifts Between Combativeness and Grievance -- “Man, it’s going to be embarrassing if I lose to this guy,” Mr. Trump has told advisers, a lament he has aired publicly as well. But in the off-camera version, Mr. Trump frequently exclaims, “This guy!” in reference to Mr. Biden, with a salty adjective separating the words. Maggie Haberman, Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin in the New York Times$ -- 11/3/20 

What the final polls say about the Trump-Biden race -- The final polls before the election, released on Monday, continued to show Joe Biden ahead in enough swing states to win. Some of the states are close, but the polls would have to be significantly more inaccurate than they were in 2016 for Trump to prevail. Steven Shepard Politico -- 11/3/20

Cunerty's family asks that in lieu of flowers, donations be made to the SCGA Junior Golf Foundation in memory of the coach. 
—OC Reg

OC covid numbers: trend

Monday, November 2, 2020

11-2: Looking bad for Republicans (says Charlie Cook); Youth Making Up Larger Share of the Electorate; OC/LA unemployment soars

—The Cook Political Report 
     Much of the thinking about the outcome of next Tuesday’s election has been binary: Does Joe Biden hang onto his lead in the polls and win, or can President Trump mount a successful comeback, threading the same needle that enabled him to win 30 states with 306 Electoral College votes last time? Another binary question: Will Republicans keep their Senate losses down to just a seat or two, remaining at 51 or 52 seats, or will Democrats score a net gain of three or four seats, emerging with the barest of majorities? 
     But it is hard to look closely at the presidential election and not see that, given how little time is left, the odds of a big Biden win are higher than those of a Trump come-from-behind victory. Which brings us to the growing body of evidence on the congressional-district and statewide level showing that Trump’s political problems are metastasizing and having a strong drag on down-ballot Republicans. That extends from the Senate to the House and even down to the state-legislative level, with serious congressional and legislative redistricting implications. A party never wants to have a bad election, but a big loss in a year ending in a zero is the defeat that keeps on defeating, as Democrats painfully learned after their massive 2010 losses, which reverberated for the rest of the decade. 
     It increasingly looks like a foregone conclusion that the GOP Senate majority is soon to be history….

Gender Bias in TA Evals 
We know about gender bias in student ratings of professors. A new study finds the same, troubling trend in evaluations of teaching assistants. 
—Inside Higher Ed 
     Students’ biases about gender and other factors have been shown to skew how they evaluate their professors’ teaching. Growing wise to this, more and more universities are limiting the role that student evaluations of teaching, or SETs, play in high-stakes personnel decisions such as tenure and promotion. 
     But what about teaching assistants, who aren’t quite faculty, but whose instruction is still often rated by the students with whom they interact? Do the same biases show up in SETs of graduate student instructors as in SETs of professors? 
     Yes, according to a forthcoming study in the North American Colleges and Teachers of Agriculture Journal. Simple in design and sobering in its results, the study found that students in an online course who had the same TA gave that TA five times as many negative evaluations when they believed that she was a woman, as compared to when they thought she was a man…. 

—Inside Higher Ed 
     In a sharply worded letter to U.S. Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, key Democrats on the House education committee lambasted the department for its investigations of Princeton University and the University of California, Los Angeles, for racial bias, as well as the administration's prohibition on institutions using federal funds for diversity training. 
     “Such actions not only threaten to exacerbate existing structures of racism in the education system and broader society, but also infringe on an ideal the Department regularly invokes -- free speech,” wrote Education and Labor Committee chairman Bobby Scott and Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici, chair of the panel’s civil rights and human services subcommittee. 
. . . 
     The letter criticizes a number of recent actions by the administration, including its investigation of UCLA because it has opened a review into allegations that a professor repeatedly used a racial slur against Blacks in class. The department, according to the Democrats, is accusing the university of “improperly and abusively target[ing]” the professor, who is white. 
. . . 
     Scott and Bonamici also criticized President Donald Trump’s executive order prohibiting the use of federal funds to promote concepts, including that “one race or sex is inherently superior to another race or sex,” that the U.S. “is fundamentally racist or sexist” and that “an individual, by virtue of his or her race or sex, is inherently racist, sexist or oppressive, whether consciously or unconsciously.” The order has forced some universities to stop diversity efforts…. 
—Inside Higher Ed 
     Younger voters are on pace to make up a greater share of the electorate in key states this year than in 2016, according to Tufts University researchers. 
     In Texas, for instance, absentee and early votes cast by 18- to 29-year-olds made up 13 percent of all the votes cast, as of last Thursday, compared to 6 percent of the votes four years ago, found the university’s Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement…. 

Trump Picked a Fight With Higher Ed. It’s Still Learning to Punch Back
An administration defined by its onslaughts against the values of higher education has forced college leaders to weigh the benefits of political neutrality against the need to hit back. 
—CHE 

—CHE 

Unemployment soars: L.A.-Orange County No. 2 in U.S., Inland Empire No. 8 -- The pandemic’s economic punch pushed Los Angeles and Orange counties to the second-largest jump in joblessness among the nation’s largest metropolitan areas in the past year — with the Inland Empire at No. 8. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that the L.A.-O.C. region’s unemployment rate soared 9.7 percentage points to 13.6% in the year ended in September. Jonathan Lansner in the Orange County Register -- 11/2/20 

How new law requiring ethnic studies at California State University will affect community colleges -- A new law requiring an ethnic studies class in order to graduate from the California State University will likely have far-reaching implications for the state’s 115 degree-granting community colleges. Michael Burke EdSource -- 11/2/20 

McManus: Biden’s secret weapon: Anti-Trump Republicans -- If Joe Biden wins the presidency this week, he could owe part of his victory to a small but surprising constituency: disaffected Republicans who abandoned President Trump. Doyle McManus in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 11/1/20

From today's NYT


The Simpsons: Election Day of Horror

Roy's obituary in LA Times and Register: "we were lucky to have you while we did"

  This ran in the Sunday December 24, 2023 edition of the Los Angeles Times and the Orange County Register : July 14, 1955 - November 20, 2...