Friday, July 3, 2020

Not so fast! Rethinking fall opening

Today's report — up again
USC reverses robust fall reopening plans, asks students to stay home for online classes
LA Times
 -- Amid the alarming surge in coronavirus spread, USC announced it will no longer bring all undergraduates back to campus for the fall semester and will move to mainly online classes, reversing an earlier decision to welcome students back for a hybrid model. Tomás Mier in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 7/2/20
Social distancing fail
Mounting Faculty Concerns About the Fall Semester
Inside Higher Ed
Professors across institutions increasingly wave red flags about the private and public health implications of default face-to-face instruction come fall, along with a lack of shared decision making in staffing and teaching decisions.
For a lengthy discussion of the pseudo-scientific book "White Fragility," check this out (especially the interview with Reed at 55:20):




Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Trump refuses to lead; OC really spikes

See Gov data — SPIKE!
Washington Post Coronavirus update:
Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-diseases expert, warned lawmakers Tuesday that there may be as many as 100,000 new cases per day, 2.5 times the present record rate of infections, if the United States continues on its current trajectory. When asked by the Senate's health committee what the overall American death toll might be, Fauci said: “I can't make an accurate prediction, but it is going to be very disturbing.” 
As infections climb precipitously across the South and West, hospitalizations are rising in seven states — Texas, Arizona, Nevada, South Carolina, Montana, Georgia and California. Average hospitalizations in these states are up at least 25 percent from last week, according to data tracked by The Washington Post.

Because of the surge, states are closing back down and workers are getting laid off for a second time, and Congress appears less inclined to provide additional aid. California, Florida, Arizona and Texas have implemented new policies that partly restrict restaurant or bar service. Nine other states have postponed or slowed their reopening plans. You can see where states are lifting restrictions (or shutting down again) on our reopening tracker.

The European Union confirmed Americans will not be allowed to travel there when it reopens Wednesday. The United States is leading the world in both officially confirmed infections and fatalities.

Despite what President Trump and some Republican leaders are saying, more coronavirus tests are coming back positive, and there’s been an increase in the number of states seeing positive test rates above 10 percent. The World Health Organizations suggests at least 14 straight days with those rates below 5 percent before relaxing containment measures.

Economists say a nationwide mask mandate could save 5 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product. The Goldman Sachs analysts are not health experts, and their research focused on the effects of federal policy on the GDP, but the findings are in line with published studies on the efficacy of masks.

As such evidence mounts that masks alone would have a significant impact on the spread of the virus, Trump's Republican allies are practically begging him to encourage wearing them. There's been a massive uptick in recent days of well-known Republicans pleading the case for masks, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Fox News host Sean Hannity and “Fox and Friends” host Steve Doocy. New data from the Pew Research Center suggests Trump’s handling of the pandemic is pushing his support lower.
Irvine Community News and Views:

Posted by Phyllis Agran, M.D. | June 26, 2020
     …Let’s take a closer look at what’s going on locally.  Our own County Supervisor and former Irvine Mayor, Don Wagner, has shown himself to be a menace to public health by first urging in May that the County be “opened up” without meeting State public health metrics.  Soon after that, Wagner began questioning the usefulness of masks, bullying the County’s chief Public Health Officer Nichole Quick, MD over the masking matter. What was Dr. Quick’s transgression?  Quite simply, she was doing her job.  To protect workers and customers alike, Dr. Quick issued an order that required the use of facemasks in public as our small businesses reopened.  Wagner challenged the science behind masking, forced the rescission of Dr. Quick’s order and, ultimately, he forced her resignation.  Fortunately, Governor Gavin Newsom ended this dangerous nonsense in Orange County by imposing a State mandate of facemask use in public, effective June 18, 2020…. 

Monday, June 29, 2020

Flat Earthers among us

LA Times
SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s order June 18 requiring all Californians to wear face masks came as welcome news to those in the state concerned by the recent surge in COVID-19 cases. Nevada City Mayor Reinette Senum instead greeted the mandate with a message of defiance.
     “Our governor does NOT have that unilateral power to make such orders,” Senum said in a Facebook post, joining sheriffs in Orange, Riverside, Sacramento and Fresno counties who have said they will refuse to enforce Newsom’s decree.
. . .
     Opposition to the mask order continues to stir. Members of the group Freedom Angels, anti-vaccine activists who have protested against the governor’s coronavirus actions, have accused Newsom of abusing his power.
     “Welcome to Prison Planet,” the group posted on Facebook....
San Diego Union-Tribune
… In Chula Vista, Mayor Mary Casillas Salas said she has seen people blatantly ignore both face masks and physical-distancing guidelines. The most recent episode happened a few days ago while the mayor walked her dog along Third Avenue.
     “I was walking and there was a group of people congregating outside a Jiu-Jitsu studio there,” she said. “There were a good 10 people standing outside the building and not a single one of them had a mask on.”
     When the city’s mayor approached the group – parents waiting for their children taking martial arts classes inside – “they looked at me like I was from outer space,” Salas said.
     Earlier this week, Salas compared people who refuse to wear masks outside to Flat Earthers.
     “I know that there’s a very, very small segment of the population out there – God bless them, members of the Flat Earth Society – that don’t believe in the science out there,” she said during the June 23 City Council meeting. “But you know what? It’s really important to be wearing those masks.”….


Thursday, June 25, 2020

South County racism; an OC Covid-19 spike; other news

The latest data — a shocking spike
(orange line: 7-day average; that's the more relevant factoid)
Voice of OC
Formerly, Saddleback "Gaucho"
     At a high school tucked away in the hills of San Juan Capistrano, a grand staircase separates the upper level of the campus from the lower level.
     During the school year, Latino students usually fill the lunch tables downstairs, while mostly white students and others sit upstairs.
     San Juan Hills High School alum Olivia Fu — now a junior at Stanford University — remembers training to be a member of the school’s student leadership program, “Link Crew,” when a senior member, giving a tour of the campus, pointed to the tables near the bottom of the stairs and said “that’s where the beaners sit.”…. (continued)
OC Register
Board of Supes Prez Michelle Steel
1. Soaring case counts 
. . . 
2. Record hospitalization numbers 
. . . 
3. Rising death projections 
. . . 
4. Troubling testing trends 
. . . 
5. Outbreaks at congregate living settings…. (see)
Newsom threatens California counties that defy coronavirus rules as cases spike
San Francisco Chronicle
Don Wagner
SACRAMENTO — Gov. Gavin Newsom could withhold financial relief from local governments in the upcoming state budget if they do not follow guidelines that he says are necessary to tamp down the spike in coronavirus cases in California.
     The budget deal with legislative leaders announced this week ties $750 million in funding to replace lost tax revenue for county services, as well as $1.3 billion for counties and $500 million for cities from the federal bailout package, to local governments’ compliance with the stay-at-home order and other state requirements on the coronavirus response.
     Newsom, through his Department of Finance, could order state officials not to send local governments their portion of the money if they do not certify they are following the rules, which include a new mandate for Californians to wear masks nearly everywhere outside the home…..
     At a news conference Wednesday, the governor said that authority would give him leverage over those who “simply thumb their nose” at state guidelines. He did not specify how cities and counties would be expected to prove their compliance, though he added that he was trying to encourage good behavior rather than punish bad behavior.
. . .

     Since the state rolled out its requirement for face coverings last week, county sheriffs and local police chiefs from Orange County to Sacramento have announced that they do not plan to enforce the order. The mayor of Nevada City, in Nevada County, encouraged residents to defy the mandate to “prevent all of us from slipping down the nasty slope of tyranny.”
. . .
     On Wednesday, Newsom pleaded with the public to continue washing their hands, wearing face coverings and avoiding large crowds and intimate gatherings.
     “Consider others in your life and strangers. Love thy neighbors like yourself,” he said. “If you cannot practice physical distancing, then are you practicing love?”
San Diego Union-Tribune 
     A large and sudden increase in coronavirus infections across San Diego County has raised doubts about whether UC San Diego will be able to proceed with plans to welcome students back to campus for the fall quarter.
     The university had been expected to release its “Return to Learn” plan late last week. But the announcement has been delayed several times to give UCSD time to evaluate the surge in cases that are being reported regionally.
     On Wednesday county health officials announced a record 332 positive test results for COVID-19, three days after 310 became the new record. The number of COVID-19 related hospitalizations also has been growing.
     The surge surprised and alarmed UCSD officials, who have been planning to announce that it will reopen this fall, in part, by offering a COVID-19 test to all of its 65,000 students, faculty and staff. Such tests would be voluntary…. (continued)

Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Don Wagner and the pushback crowd


     You'll recall that, on June 18, Governor Gavin Newsom made face coverings mandatory for all Californians in an effort to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The action was taken in response to the failure of many Californians to wear face masks in public.
Guv Newsom
     Orange County in particular hasn't been real good about this whole Covid thing. For instance, for months, OC Supervisors Michelle Steel and (former SOCCCD TrusteeDon Wagner have pushed back against measures—promoted by the Governor and even some board colleagues—to respond to the crisis. 
Dr. Quick
     On May 23rd, faced with increasingly worrisome data, County Health Officer Nichole Quick issued an order requiring that people wear face masks when in public. That unleashed mega peevitude among the anti-maskers. The OC Sheriff declared he wouldn't enforce the mask order. The anti-maskers were pissed—the nerve of the woman to require non-spewage of Covid-19 droplets! Quick was soon pressured (death threats, demonstrations outside her home) to quit her job.
     The mask order was downgraded to a mere recommendation.
     Soon thereafter the shit commenced hitting the fan, Coronavirus-wise. The state-wide numbers started looking bad and many citizens defied safety recommendations, leading to Newsom's action six days ago. More locally, the Covid data are worrisome. The latest report (Covid-19) indicates that 26 Orange Countians died from Covid-19 yesterday—a new high, I believe. The number of cases keeps going up and up. 
     As far as responding to Covid-19 is concerned, OC now looks pretty bad compared to some neighboring counties.
     That's because it's been fucking up.

* * *
     As you know, Don Wagner is the Supervisor of the County's 3rd district—my district.
     If you go to Don’s government page (https://d3.ocgov.com), you’ll see this:


     As you can see, Don has chosen to provide Covid-19 info on his opening page, which is sensible. 
     I draw your attention to the “Covid-19 Resources” graphic that appears at the bottom of his page. 
     Golly, no mention of mask-wearing! 
     How come?
     I looked at the pages of the other OC Supervisors. Most refer to the Covid-19 crisis, though none provides the graphic Don has chosen.
     Supervisor Andrew Do’s page provides a prominent link to “Coronavirus Updates,” and, in particular, to a timeline of board actions re Covid-19. It’s pretty helpful. Check it out: update.
     For some reason, Superivor Michelle Steel’s page does not draw attention to the Covid crisis at all. What's up with that?
Wagner
     As you know, she's board president.
     Supervisor Doug Chaffee’s page has a link to Covid updates. I see that the “infographic” that the link yields provides basic info about Covid-19 but, despite the Governor’s recent action, the graphic does not mention the need for mask-wearing. 
     Odd that.
     Supervisor Lisa Bartlet‘s page provides a gizmo that scrolls through various items, including “Covid-19 updates.” Clicking on the latter led me to “OC Health Officer's Orders & Recommendations,” which includes “Wear a Cloth Face-Covering“ as the 4th order. 
     Excellent.
     But no mask talk from Wagner. Or Steel.


* * *
     It's pretty clear that many tens of thousands of Americans have died unnecessarily thanks to President Trump's foot-dragging re the Coronavirus crisis. 
     That's bad, real bad. Right? And Trump shows no signs of wising up. On the contrary! Americans should be fully cooperating with the familiar guidelines, but many seem confused or clueless. Trump's actions and statements are one obvious reason for that. So, many more will die, unnecessarily. It's a tragic leadership vacuum—or maybe an unprecedented "misleadership."
Steel
     Meanwhile, here in OC, some substantial number of Orange Countians have died—and will die—thanks to the efforts of Wagner, Steel, and the whole "pushback" crowd. —I mean, Dr. Quick was doing the right thing and for the right reasons. And, for her trouble, the pushback Supes got rid of her and undid her orders.
     Golly.
     It will be interesting to see how our County "leaders" respond to our new self-perception of abject FUBARitude.

See also: 
….More than two months after the United States recorded its worst day of new infections since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, the nation reached another grim milestone on Wednesday as it reported 36,880 new cases.
     The number of infections indicated that the country was not only failing to contain the coronavirus, but also that the caseload was worsening — a path at odds with many other nations that have seen steady declines after an earlier peak. Cases in the United States had been on a downward trajectory after the previous high of 36,739 cases on April 24, but they have roared back in recent weeks.
. . .
     The tally of new cases, based on a New York Times database, showed that the outbreak was stronger than ever even as the United States continued to reopen its economy. The elevated numbers are a result of worsening conditions across much of the country, as well as increased testing — but testing alone does not explain the surge….
. . .
     On Wednesday it was as if the country had found itself back in March — at the start of the pandemic, in the early days of the lockdown, when masks were in short supply and when the death toll was skyrocketing.
     Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said that the state had recorded more than 7,000 new cases over the previous day.
. . .
     The World Health Organization warned on Wednesday that if governments and communities in the Americas are not able to stop the spread of the virus through surveillance, isolation of cases and quarantine of contacts, there may be a need to impose — or reimpose — general lockdowns….
Yesterday: 26 Covid deaths in OC.
The trend is worrisome.

Roy's obituary in LA Times and Register: "we were lucky to have you while we did"

  This ran in the Sunday December 24, 2023 edition of the Los Angeles Times and the Orange County Register : July 14, 1955 - November 20, 2...