Preparing for the Big Wet One

A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO, DtB posted a discussion of the tsunami threat here in Orange County. (See So Cal Tsunamis?)

Ridiculous, you say?

Don’t think so. As we explained then, the tsunami threat is real, not because a devastating tsunami in our lifetime is likely (it isn’t), but because a devastating OC tsunami (at some impossible-to-predict moment) is inevitable.

We’re like Indonesians were until two years ago: unprepared, unworried, "because we're unlikely to be 'the ones.'" We're TYPICAL HUMAN KNUCKLEHEADS.

Well, in this morning’s OC Reg, the point about the nature of the threat and other points are made in Before the ocean rises. The article also announces that OC will soon be the first California county to be “TsunamiReady.”

I wouldn’t get too excited about that. It turns out that being “TsunamiReady” doesn’t mean we're ready for a big tsunami, though it’s a good start. Essentially, it means that there’s been an effort to educate the public about the danger. Plus some efforts have been made to organize emergency personnel for a response. But, when the big wet one hits, the ocean is still gonna destroy everything in its path, and that path covers coastal towns filled with cell-phone packin' knuckleheads.

The upshot: saying your county is “TsunamiReady” is like a driver saying she’s “CrashSafe” because somebody told her to wear her seatbelt and to get a AAA card.


The Register article has some good graphics. Check 'em out. Here are some excerpts:

…All Orange County beach cities are or in the next few months will be "TsunamiReady," a National Weather Service designation that recognizes communities that prepare for such events….

…"The message we put out is to be prepared, because you just never know," [Ed Clark, warning coordination meteorologist in San Diego] said. "To say we're not going to be hit is in a way asking for it."

Mark Legg, a Huntington Beach-based scientist who for decades has studied the potential for a tsunami here, said about the countywide effort, "It's about time."

"We humans think we're not vulnerable because we think technology will save us," he said. "Well, Mother Nature is very powerful."

Russ Fluter, a Newport Beach resident walking the Strand in Newport Beach on a recent day, said he wasn't concerned…“I don't think it's going to happen, personally," he said....

Since 1980, there have been tsunami warnings issued in Southern California in May 1986, October 1994 and June 2005…The 2005 warning, which happened just months after the Indonesia devastation, was a wake-up call, emergency officials said…The warning confused residents along the coast who didn't know whether to stay or go.

Glorria Morrison, emergency services coordinator in Huntington Beach, said hundreds of people called 911 to ask, "What should I do?"….


Are we at risk?

● ...Mark Legg has studied the area's risk for a tsunami since the '70s and said there is evidence large tsunamis have hit our shoreline.

● While large earthquakes offshore are rare, they have happened. There have been four offshore earthquakes stronger than magnitude 6 in the past 75 years.

● There was a well-documented case in Southern California in 1927 that generated a tsunami, raising the ocean by 6 feet. There was no major damage because much of the coast was undeveloped. That's different from a 6-foot wave that surfers here are used to--this is a sea change that "you can't outrun, you cannot swim against," he said.

● Catalina is a danger area that could be a source of a tsunami. The island is on a fault that bends left, a "pop-up" formed by many earthquakes over hundreds of thousands of years.

● Other fault lines move right, creating a hole, or "pull-apart" basins. San Diego Harbor is an example of this, as is the San Pedro Basin. These slopes offshore are steep and made of soft sediment. A large earthquake could trigger a submarine landslide, which could create a tsunami….

● Legg and his colleagues found evidence of a tsunami – shells and marine life mixed with bedrock – in Carlsbad that occurred within the last 11,000 years. The findings were 29 feet above sea level, meaning the ocean rose by at least that much.

Oh Wow: Strong earthquake shakes Taiwan. No tsunami this time.