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Wastin' away again in Coronavirusville — plus SPIKE!

Mostly from Rough&Tumble:

✅Coronavirus Live Updates: C.D.C. Says Case Numbers Could Be 2-13 Times Higher Than Reported in Parts of U.S.

New York Times

     California could overtake New York in coronavirus cases this week -- With coronavirus cases nearing 400,000 on Monday, California appears on track to surpass New York as the state with the most coronavirus infections, a sobering milestone for a region that led the country in aggressive shelter-in-place measures and helped dampen the spread of the virus this spring. Cynthia Dizikes and Alexei Koseff in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 7/21/20

 

✅Orange County overtakes Riverside County for second-largest number of coronavirus cases recorded in California -- Confirmed cases of the coronavirus are rising steadily in Orange County, as it overtook Riverside County to be the county with the second-largest number of cases in California, according to local health department updates. Jeong Park in the Orange County Register -- 7/21/20

 

✅California sues to protect Obamacare protections for LGBTQ residents -- California joined a lawsuit with 22 other states against the Trump administration on Monday seeking to protect anti-discrimination language in the Affordable Care Act that the White House last month moved to eliminate. Matt Kristoffersen in the Sacramento Bee$ -- 7/21/20

✅CSU board to consider ethnic studies requirement, but opposition looms -- The California State University Board of Trustees will vote tomorrow on a proposal that would require students to complete at least one course in “Ethnic Studies and Social Justice,” but the measure has been criticized by some as watered down, setting up an unprecedented showdown with the state Legislature. The item is in the Orange County Register -- 7/21/20

 

✅Younger L.A. County residents are increasingly catching COVID-19 -- The surge of the coronavirus in Los Angeles County continues to be fueled by younger people, with the majority of those infected younger than 41. Officials said Sunday that 53% of the 2,848 new cases reported for the day occurred among that group. Overall, 52% of cases to date in the county have been people under 41. Alex Wigglesworth, Howard Blume in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 7/20/20

✅What's Next for Remote Learning?

Inside Higher Ed

     Given the skepticism voiced by many students, administrators who oversee online learning share a surprisingly sunny outlook on how well their institution handled the pivot to remote learning this spring, according to new survey data.

Republican from planet Shite

✅Dem Bill Seeks to Prevent Tying Federal Funds to Reopening

Inside Higher Ed

     Though the focus is on the Trump administration’s threats to cut off funding to K-12 schools that choose not to reopen this fall, a spokeswoman for Senator Mark Warner said a bill being introduced by the Democrat from Virginia would also make it “crystal clear” funding cannot be taken away from higher education institutions that do not resume in-person classes….

 

✅Colleges’ Dream of an In-Person Fall Is Crumbling

Chronicle of HE

     News that the University of California at Berkeley, Miami Dade College, and others will start the semester remotely signals a retreat from the optimism of the late spring.

Today's NUMBERS

Know-nothing America: blaming the Chinese and the Democrats, natch!

7-20: Trumpian folly; Supervisors at odds

✅Judge Orders Full Restoration of DACA

Inside Higher Ed

     A federal judge ordered the government to restore the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program “to its pre-September 5, 2017 status” in light of the Supreme Court’s recent 5-to-4 opinion finding that the Trump administration's attempt to rescind the program that day was unlawful. The decision means that the administration must begin accepting new applications for the program, which provides work authorization and shields certain young undocumented immigrants from deportation, for the first time since September 2017.
     Media outlets have reported that the government has been rejecting new DACA applications or otherwise failing to act on them. CNN reported that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services is reviewing the ruling…..

✅Trump defends bungled handling of coronavirus with falsehoods and dubious claims -- President Trump said in an interview aired Sunday that the rising number of U.S. deaths from the coronavirus “is what it is,” defended his fumbled management of the pandemic with a barrage of dubious and false claims, and revealed his lack of understanding about the fundamental science of how the virus spreads and infects people. Philip Rucker and Felicia Sonmez in the Washington Post$ -- 7/20/20

✅OC Supervisors Split Over Coronavirus Numbers & Trends

Voice of OC

     As Orange County continues to see a spike in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations, county Supervisors seem often at odds with each other over what the numbers actually mean.
. . .
     Since the pandemic began, there seems to have been a consistent questioning from County Supervisors Michelle Steel and Don Wagner – amidst largely silence from their colleagues – about closures and the mandatory use of masks as well as official estimates about the Coronavirus.
     At last Tuesday’s meeting, Wagner questioned whether the county’s positivity rate may be skewed.
     “The positivity rate, that is a metric the state looks at, right? And we heard from Supervisor [Doug] Chaffe with respect to testing, there is some frustration out there in the community, that now test centers are looking for symptomatic people at this time,” Wagner asked interim health officer Dr. Clayton Chau.
     “The effort is to encourage people to get tested, whether or not they are symptomatic or asymptomatic. Especially essential workers and health care workers,” Chau replied.
     Wagner then questioned whether the testing regimen might be skewing the numbers the way it’s designed.
     “That has a dramatic effect, does it not, on the positivity rate — if you test more symptomatic people, you’re going to find the disease more often, than if you did a random test of the populace,” Wagner said.
     Chau responded, “That’s a difficult question to answer.”
     He said the rate could go up if only symptomatic people are tested, along with frontline workers, then testing positivity rates will go up.
     Wagner’s line of questioning and statements – similar to past questioning of mandatory mask order – this week drew the ire of Supervisor Andrew Do.
     “There will be a sound bite that the [testing committee] was wrong, that we went looking for symptomatic people, I kind of heard that statement earlier,” Do said. “And that statement was made up here, at least that’s what it sounded like to me.”
     “I want to just emphasize the point, the testing program that we announced today at the Anaheim Convention Center tests both symptomatic and asymptomatic people. Within the asymptomatic people we will prioritize who we test first,” Do said.
     Asymptomatic people will be prioritized based on what type of work they do, their age, health conditions and other factors at the convention center test site, he said.
     Do also indirectly seemed to criticize Wagner for asking Chau what the psychological effects on kids are from school shutdowns and if the state’s school guidelines “strike a reasonable balance with the kids.”
     “So please, this dance that we do over and over. At very minimum, to me, it’s very confusing to the public and if anything, it leads to the wrong kind of dialogue. And it somehow implies that you have control over this process,” Do said. “At some point concede something, because it makes sense from a logic perspective.”….

TODAY'S FACTS: cases per day has been declining for a week (see above).
The 7-day average has been about 670 two days in a row. My guess is that this will
shoot up soon. Hopefully not.

Redolent Sunday

From Rough & Tumble

✅Coronavirus backlash triggers wave of progressive activism from Asian Americans in Orange County – After generations of benefiting from a conservative trope that painted Asian Americans as shining examples of how to assimilate and overcome racism, Tammy Kim said a wave of discrimination tied to the coronavirus pandemic has reshaped reality for many Asian Americans in Orange County. Brooke Staggs in the Orange County Register -- 7/19/20

✅Trump Leans Into False Virus Claims in Combative Fox News Interview – An agitated President Trump offered a string of combative and often dubious assertions in an interview aired Sunday, defending his handling of the coronavirus with misleading evidence, attacking his own health experts, disputing polls showing him trailing in his re-election race and defending people who display the Confederate flag as victims of “cancel culture.” Katie Rogers in the New York Times$ -- 7/19/20

✅Trump declines to say whether he will accept November election results – President Trump declined to say whether he will accept the results of the November election, claiming without evidence that mail-in voting due to the coronavirus pandemic could “rig” the outcome. Felicia Sonmez in the Washington Post$ -- 7/19/20

✅Almost 500 people have died of COVID-19 in Orange County as cases approach 30,000 – Orange County reported 25 more deaths connected to the novel coronavirus on Saturday, the third-highest day on record as the number of confirmed cases continues to surge. Laura J. Nelson in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 7/19/20

✅Weekend protests for social justice continue in Southern California – Demonstrators will again gather on Saturday throughout Southern California for more protests and other actions challenging systemic racism and police brutality, and advocating for change. The nationwide movement sparked by the Memorial Day death of George Floyd in Minneapolis continues nearly eight weeks after he was killed while in police custody and now embraces a range of issues. The item is in the Los Angeles Daily News$ -- 7/18/20

✅Trump administration pushing to block new money for testing, tracing, and CDC in upcoming coronavirus relief bill – The Trump administration is trying to block billions of dollars for states to conduct testing and contact tracing in the upcoming coronavirus relief bill, people involved in the talks said Saturday. Erica Werner and Jeff Stein in the Washington Post$ -- 7/18/20

✅Inside Trump’s Failure: The Rush to Abandon Leadership Role on the Virus – The roots of the nation’s current inability to control the pandemic can be traced to mid-April, when the White House embraced overly rosy projections to proclaim victory and move on. Michael D. Shear, Noah Weiland, Eric Lipton, Maggie Haberman and David E. Sanger in the New York Times$ -- 7/18/20

7-18: OC factoids

Today's OC factoids: number of new cases; 7-day average

✅Orange County reports 25 new deaths due to COVID-19, LA Times

✅Almost 500 people have died of COVID-19 in Orange County as cases approach 30,000, LA Times

✅Coronavirus now spreading faster in suburbs like Orange County than in L.A. County, LA Times

✅Marco Rubio Eulogizes the Wrong Black Guy, Mother Jones

The Epitome

Mariane, c. 1950

     GOSH it’s been a nice day.

     Late this afternoon, Teddy and I did as we always do; we walked down to my sister Annie’s place, where we found her tending the plants of her big landscaping project, which involves maybe a thousand square feet of a knoll covered with Live Oak and Eucalyptus trees, plus some cool native cactus. We hang out there a lot, Teddy included.

     Annie dashed over to her studio and got the boy his usual “fish prizes” (pricey cat food); then, she and I sat in some lawn chairs and consumed our official covid-era snack, a few strips of vegan jerky (Primal Spirit) that I buy online.

     So here’s the thing. Annie told me that, earlier, she had called “Tante [Aunt] Mariane” (we pronounce this as Germans do: TAUN-ta Mehr-ee-AH-nah)—who lives, with her husband Hermann (“HAIR-mahn”) in a little seaside town (White Rock) south of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hermann and Mariane moved up there from the city of Orange about thirty years ago, avowedly to “take advantage of far-superior Canadian healthcare.” They never regretted it.

     I always liked the utterly warm and friendly Mariane, who was my mom’s best friend (we only call her “Aunt”). In 1945, when the remnants of my mom’s Pomeranian family—both of my mom’s parents were dead—fled west, via rail, to evade the advancing Soviet Army (the train was strafed by Soviet fighter planes), her little group ended up in a town south of Hamburg. As a “displaced person,” mom and the others were hated by the locals, who did not want to share what little they had; nevertheless, Mom, who was 12-years old, met the very sweet Mariane, also 12, and they became close friends. They remained so until my mom’s death from Alzheimer’s about a year ago.

Hermann and Mariane, Trabuco Canyon, c. early 80s

     That’s a 74-year friendship!

     Mariane, who’s in her late 80s, is as sharp as a tack. (I’ve spoken with her a couple of times in the last year or so.) The dementia-related deaths of my parents really weirded her out. She seemed positively freaked by my mom’s zaniness during attempted conversations over the phone those last few years. Sometimes, I joined in to serve as a kind of intermediary/translator. One of mom’s Alzheimer’s-derived lunacies: she was fond of Donald Trump.

     I’m glad Mariane has felt the need to stay connected to us “kids” after my folks’ deaths. I love that old gal.

     “So, how are they doin’?” I asked my sis.

     “They’re doin’ great!” said Annie. Annie enjoys being the one who has managed something desirable, such as a conversation with an old family friend.

     “How are they copin’ with the Covid thing up there?”, I asked.

     “Pretty well.”

     After a pause, she continued: “–I think they’re really worried about us, though. Turns out, the only thing people talk about in BC is the craziness goin’ on in Orange County!”

     I thought about that. “Wow. Really?”

     “Yep.”

Mariane and my mom, Orange, 1963

     Mariane and Hermann lived in Orange County for maybe thirty years (like my parents, they moved from Germany to Canada and then, finally, to the U.S. circa 1960). They seemed to fit in fine when they were down here, livin’ in rednecky Orange, not far from downtown. Since they’ve moved back to Canada, though, they seem to have adopted the Canadian Weltanschauung. At this point, I think, they see Americans as benighted and dangerous.

     The world is a big place and there’s a lot to try to keep track of. So, inevitably, people embrace simplifications; that is, one embraces caricatures of the realities of “other” places. So lots of foreigners—lots of Canadians, I think—look at the good old U.S.A. as a bunch of slack-jawed rubes. Who else would vote for a guy like Trump? Obviously, we do the same or worse to Canadians.

     “I hate Trump,” declared Mariane, over the phone, talking to Annie, or so Annie said. I don’t recall ever hearing so simple a declarative sentence coming out of Tante Mariane's mouth. She’s way too nice for that.

     “I hate Trump,” she declared, and then added, “He’s a terrible man and an idiot.”

     Well, OK then. One grows tired of explaining to one’s foreign friends and relatives that, no, not everyone in this country approves of Mr. Trump—that, in truth, most people (maybe even most people in OC) view him as a loutish idjit and daily hope for some shred of evidence that his disastrous reign might soon come to an end. For instance, he could just drop dead one day. That would be wonderful.

     Maybe Tante Mariane understands all this. No doubt she knows we're anti-Trumpians.

     But this notion that Orange County, California, is some hot spot of Trumpian lunacy, some hellmouth of stupid and hateful knuckle-draggery—that British Columbians pursue their days with that thought, however simplistic, pleased me.

     It is a curious fact that Orange County often comes up when one traces the origins of the lunacies and idiocies of our times. For instance, I’m told that some of the convoluted financial contrivances that led to the crash of 2008 had their origins in Orange County.

     Seems plausible. I really don’t know.

The grassy knoll

     I do know that the “birther” movement (remember Orly Taitz?) owed a great deal to Orange County. And the notion that it is right and proper to torment “wetbacks” on the Mexican border?—that definitely owes much to Orange County trailblazers. As we all know, the OC was a locus of Bircherism back in the day; John Birch conspiracy theories rival Trumpian contentions for sheer idiocy. And, back in the 1920s, the KKK dominated the Anaheim City Council.
     –You’ve got to admit, that’s pretty special.

     Since 1979, Orange County has been home to the foremost Holocaust denial organization in the country. The no-holds-barred “dirty tricks” tradition in American politics—that, too, depends a lot on Orange County innovators of half a century ago.

     Still, I’M an Orange Countian, and MY FRIENDS are mostly Orange Countians, and we’re not like that at all; we’re sworn enemies of this hideous hayseed right-wingery and this assault on reason and ethics.

     So, anyway, if my Tante Mariane is to be believed, British Columbians see the world like this: Trumpian inanity has a strangle-hold on the USA, threatening to set the world afire, and the epitome of abject Trumpian folly is, in fact, good old Orange County, CA, that shining shit-pile on a hill, where government officials believe that this Covid thing is somehow a Chinese and/or Democratic conspiracy and that surgical mask-wearing mandates are acts of “terrorism” against God-fearing, freedom-loving citizens and their goddam kids.

     Just a little perspective for you.

That's my mom, sister Annie, and me, c. 1958
(British Columbia)

White Rock, British Columbia

Abject Covidity

✅With coronavirus antibodies fading fast, vaccine hopes fade, too
San Francisco Chronicle

     Disturbing new revelations that permanent immunity to the coronavirus may not be possible have jeopardized vaccine development and reinforced a decision by scientists at UCSF and affiliated laboratories to focus exclusively on treatments.

     Several recent studies conducted around the world indicate that the human body does not retain the antibodies that build up during infections, meaning there may be no lasting immunity to COVID-19 after people recover.

     Strong antibodies are also crucial in the development of vaccines. So molecular biologists fear the only way left to control the disease may be to treat the symptoms after people are infected to prevent the most debilitating effects, including inflammation, blood clots and death.

     “I just don’t see a vaccine coming anytime soon,” said Nevan Krogan, a molecular biologist and director of UCSF’s Quantitative Biosciences Institute, which works in partnership with 100 research laboratories. “People do have antibodies, but the antibodies are waning quickly.” And if antibodies diminish, “then there is a good chance the immunity from a vaccine would wane too.”

     The latest bad news came from scientists at King’s College of London, whose study of 90 COVID-19 patients in the United Kingdom found antibody levels peaked three weeks after the onset of symptoms and then dramatically declined.

     Potent antibodies were found in 60% of the patients, according to the study, but only 17% retained the same potency three months later. In some cases, the antibodies disappeared completely, said the study which was published as a preprint Saturday, meaning it has not yet been peer-reviewed.

     The report is the latest in a growing chain of evidence that immunity to COVID-19 is short-lived….

✅ In new guidance, Gov. Newsom expected to impose strict regulations for school opening and closing

EdSource

     Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to announce Friday that all public and private schools in California counties on the state’s  monitoring list for rising coronavirus infections would be required to close for in-class instruction and meet strict criteria in order to reopen. 

     Under the expected guidance, children in kindergarten through 2d grade who are being taught in classrooms would be encouraged, but not required, to wear masks. That’s according to several participants in discussions with administration officials and others familiar with the guidance. However, students in grades 3 to 12, along with staff, would be required to wear them. Those who refuse could be sent home to be taught exclusively via distance learning.

     Students would be encouraged to stay as far apart as possible, but would not be required to maintain the 6-foot distance expected of staff.

     The guidance would represent a marked shift from leaving decisions over closing and reopening schools largely in the hands of local school district officials in consultation with county departments of health.  The California Department of Public Health would now play a stronger role in setting the criteria for reopening school facilities….

✅ Trump Administration Rejects New DACA Applications

Inside Higher Ed

     The Trump administration is refusing to process new applications for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program despite a Supreme Court ruling that required reinstatement of the program, the Los Angeles Times reported Thursday.

     Legal experts say the Supreme Court's ruling compels the administration to begin accepting new applications for the DACA program, which provides protections from deportation for certain young immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children. But immigration lawyers says U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services is rejecting new applications or confirming receipt of the applications and not acting on them. USCIS did not respond to the paper’s request for comment.