10-31: The scary day approaches: rumblings of violence, Trump may declare victory or keep campaigning, massive gun-buying

✅Current and former Trump administration officials are worried about what might happen on Nov. 4.

Officials say Trump will claim some kind of “victory” on November 4th even if the vote tallies show him behind
—NYT (Opinion; Ron Suskind) 

 ✅‘We may have a wild roller-coaster ride’ after the election, says Ohio State law professor Edward Foley 

—WashPo 

 ✅Trump may just keep campaigning after Election Day -- Trump campaign surrogates have been told to keep their Novembers clear for potential campaign events, even if the election results are still unknown. Meridith McGraw and Gabby Orr Politico -- 10/31/20 

 ✅With Election Day looming, an anxious nation hears rumblings of violence 

A spike in gun sales, bellicose chatter online, and surveys showing increased tolerance for violence have some analysts worried. 

—WashPo 

 ✅Counties, cops making sure you’re safe at the polls -- Attorney General Xavier Becerra sent a bulletin to law enforcement officials Thursday reminding them that voter intimidation and election interference is against the law. He laid out rules about what poll watchers can and can’t do. Lewis Griswold CalMatters -- 10/31/20 

 

✅Anxious Religious Leaders Come Together to Urge Calm in Orange County Ahead of Election Day 

—Voice of OC 

    "With terms like “contested election” and “will there be a civil war” growing in recent days and weeks as Google search trends, religious leaders like Rev. Samuel Pullen of the Community Congregational United Church of Christ in Los Alamitos said it will fall on all faith figures, including himself, to be community bastions of civility and nonviolence."

 ✅‘There Are No Boundaries’: Experts Imagine Trump’s Post-Presidential Life if He Loses

—Politico 

 ✅The College Degree Is Dividing AmericaWhat does that mean for higher education? 

—CHE

 ✅An East Bay professor is teaching the theory that race influences intelligence. Students and faculty want him out -- An economics professor at one of California’s most diverse public universities has for years taught a fringe theory that race influences intelligence, claiming that certain Black and Hispanic ethnic groups are less intelligent on average than white Europeans and Northeast Asians. Jason Fagone in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 10/31/20 

Wright campaign law violation update

     SOCCCD Trustee candidate Ryan Dack just sent me his opponent’s (James Wright’s) late filing of a 9-page “form 460” to which was attached a form 497 “contribution report.” Here’s that last document: 

Click on graphic go enlarge

     Filed today, it reveals that Wright received over $2,000 ($3982.78, precisely the cost of a 200-word campaign statement) from the union on August 4th. As I explained yesterday, campaign laws require that a candidate file a 460 to reveal receipt of contributions of $2,000 or more. Wright had failed to do that—until today.

     For what it's worth, I think Dack is an attractive, energetic, and progressive candidate and, as such, a perfect replacement for James Wright and his tired and clueless ways. Tired and clueless: that could be said about most of the rest of the SOCCCD board of trustees. 

     It is time for a change.

10:30: Moody’s Forecasts Widespread Drop in Tuition Revenue; Trump Jr.: covid-19 deaths are at ‘almost nothing’; Mission Viejo yogurt shop brouhaha

✅Colleges Forecast Net Tuition Revenue Declines for Fiscal 2021 

—Inside Higher Ed 

     Median net tuition revenue will likely decline by 3.3 percent at private colleges and universities and by 0.9 percent at public colleges and universities in the 2021 fiscal year, according to a Moody’s Investors Service annual tuition survey of institutions it rates. 

     The data show negative net tuition revenue growth in both public and private sectors for the first time since 2009, when the tuition survey began…. 

✅Moody’s Forecasts Widespread Drop in Tuition Revenue. Here’s Why That Matters. 

—CHE 

✅The Coronavirus Humanities 

—CHE 

✅Trump Jr. said covid-19 deaths are at ‘almost nothing’ on a day more than 1,000 Americans died

—WashPo 

✅The virus is surging in every swing state 

—WashPo 

✅California may “shatter the total vote record” -- As the final weekend before Election Day approaches, approximately 40 percent of California’s electorate, or 8.5 million voters, have already cast their ballots—about double the number a week ago. As more in-person polling places open, experts say the state is on track to have more votes cast than ever before. Zachary Fletcher CalMatters -- 10/30/20 

✅Community backs Southern California yogurt shop owner after lawsuit threat over masks -- Mariana Tabla, co-owner of a Mission Viejo yogurt shop called Frapys, has become a rock star at least among people in the community who believe in wearing face coverings, which are recommended by county and state health officials. Erika I. Ritchie in the Orange County Register -- 10/30/20 

✅Biden’s Call for ‘National Mask Mandate’ Gains Traction in Public Health Circles -- As the nation heads into what public health experts are calling a “dark winter” of coronavirus illness and death, public health experts are coalescing around Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s call for a “national mask mandate,” even as they concede such an effort would require much more than the stroke of a presidential pen. Sheryl Gay Stolberg in the New York Times$ -- 10/30/20 

✅Coronavirus nearly 7 times more widespread in Orange County than reported, study shows -- While the screening, a collaborative effort between UC Irvine and the OC Health Care Agency, demonstrates that the coronavirus may be far more widespread — though less deadly — than official numbers indicate, researchers said more work is needed to understand the level of protection that antibodies provide and how best to address disparities in how the virus affects different populations. Luke Money in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/29/20

✅A Trump-Fueled Tsunami of Distrust Has Swamped Our Elections. Americans Are Voting Anyway. 

—Politico 

✅Trump Admitted Years Ago to a “Little Conflict of Interest” in Turkey. It’s Not So Little. 

Pressuring DOJ not to prosecute a Turkish bank for helping Iran “illustrates how compromised President Trump is.” 

—Mother Jones

District 6 Trustee Candidate RYAN DACK tags opponent James Wright for campaign finance violation

Ryan Dack

     Earlier today, I was contacted by SOCCCD trustee candidate (district 6) Ryan Dack, who apprised me of his efforts looking into the campaign finances of his opponent, James Wright. Dack asserts that Wright is in violation of campaign finance law, for he received a contribution of over $2,000 from the South Orange County Community College District Faculty Association (the district faculty union) sometime in July/August but never filed a form 460. 

     The filing of form 460 is required by state law and the Fair Political Practices Commission (FPPC) when a candidate receives a contribution of over $2,000. Wright only filed a form 470, which indicated that he would not raise over $2,000. 

     Here’s that document: 

     And here’s the FPPC’s official wording on when a Form 460 must be filed: 

Wright

The Form 460 is for use by all recipient committees, including: Candidates, Officeholders and Their Controlled Committees. 

[This form is for]…A candidate or officeholder who has a controlled committee, or who has raised or spent or will raise or spend $2,000 or more during a calendar year in connection with election to office or holding office. The Form 460 is also required if $2,000 or more will be raised or spent during the calendar year at the behest of the officeholder or candidate. [See California Form 460] 

     Dack says he recognizes that this is no great shakes. Still, he believes “that our public servants should be transparent about where their money comes from.” He doesn’t believe that Wright’s violation was malicious. On the other hand, “at the very least we should expect competency from our elected officials when it comes to things like campaign finance.”

     According to Dack, at this point, Wright’s form 460 is over 80 days late and he’ll face a penalty.

SOCCCD trustee area 6

Fire news

Cook's Corner at Santiago Canyon and Live Oak Canyon, c. 1970

     I'm having trouble finding decent coverage of the Silverado fire, as it concerns its eastern flank.

     I do believe the fire people don't expect this fire to be fully contained until the 11th of November, but I suspect that that factoid makes the situation seem worse than it is. Indications are (I think) that the fire authorities have done a lot to contain this monster.

     The Reb and crew are safe and sound. My bro's family got lucky and just missed the mandatory evacuations in east Irvine. The air there has been pretty bad but things are definitely slowly getting back to normal, at least in my brother's part of east Irvine.

     I did find the same "hot spot" map (see yesterday), only updated. It looks good:

Rebel Girl's place and my place are represented by blue dots on the right (bottom half).

     Hotspot-wise, we seems to be much better off than yesterday. Here's yesterday's map:

Again, look for the blue dots.

Here's yet another "hotspot" map, done from satellite:

The darker the spot, the older it is, I think. The light blue spot at lower right isn't a hot spot;
it seems to be Modjeska Canyon, or near there. My place is down from there
and a little to the right. So I think we're sittin' pretty.

Teddy says "hey."

I've added some pics below that the Reb took yesterday:

Looking west, I think, from Santiago Canyon Rd.,
near the southernmost Modjeska turnoff.

Same vantage point. Is that Whiting Ranch back there?

GRATUITOUS HISTORICAL IMAGERY (The Santa Ana Mountains):

El Toro Marine Base (now Irvine), May 1945

An 1886 photo of the Lawson family, residents of Hagador Canyon. Hagador Canyon

is in the northeastern Santa Anas, near Corona, CA

10-28: Money talks; Transfers to 2-Year Colleges Plunge; White House science office takes credit for 'ending' pandemic

✅The Top Election Spenders in OC’s Biggest Cities and Who They’re Backing 

Here’s a simple look at the biggest spenders in Anaheim, Santa Ana and Irvine and who they’re backing or opposing. 

—Voice of OC 

     As voters pick their new representatives in OC’s largest cities, hundreds of thousands of dollars are being spent to help particular candidates win or lose – with the largest spending coming from Disney, police unions and a host of developers. 

     With much of the campaign money now disclosed in hundreds of public reports, here’s a simple look at the biggest spenders in Anaheim, Santa Ana and Irvine this election and who they’re backing or opposing. 

. . . 

Anaheim 

     In Anaheim, Walt Disney Corp. continues to reign supreme once again in election spending in the city, pumping $1.5 million into a committee supporting candidates Jose Diaz, Steve Faessel and Avelino Valencia…. 

Santa Ana 

     Santa Ana’s police union is again the dominant spender in city elections this year, though at a far-reduced spending level than previous years following a successful – and expensive – recall campaign the union funded this spring…. 

Irvine 

     Developers Five Point Communities and The Irvine Co. continue to be the dominant spenders in Irvine elections, pumping over $400,000 dollars into groups supporting candidates Mike Carroll, Christina Shea and John Park, and opposing Larry Agran and Tammy Kim. 

     The money can take twists and turns on its way into the election. 

     Voters across the city have been receiving mailers from a PAC called the Greater Irvine Education Guide – the single biggest spender on ads in the election. That PAC is, in turn, funded by at least $78,000 from groups that themselves are largely funded by Five Point and The Irvine Co, according to public campaign finance records. 

     And in some cases, the money is coming from Five Point’s lobbying firm, Starpointe Ventures, which is run by lobbyist Patrick Strader and his family…. 

✅House Democrats Charge Ed Dept. Concealed Actions 

Top House Democrats on Tuesday released emails that seemed to contradict the Education Department’s public denials that it stopped the development of a tool on its website to make it easier for students who had been defrauded by for-profit colleges to apply to have their federal debt canceled. 

—Inside Higher Ed 

✅Political Divide Over Colleges' Fall Reopenings 

The American public is divided over just about everything -- so why wouldn't it be divided over whether colleges and universities should have brought students back to their physical campuses this fall? 

—Inside Higher Ed 

     A survey released by the Pew Research Center this week finds Americans split down the middle on the question of whether colleges that are providing "in-person instruction did/did not make the right decision bringing students back to campus this fall." 

     Fifty percent of those surveyed by Pew said colleges made the right call -- while 48 percent said they did not. But as will probably surprise no one, the proportions look very different by political party. Almost three-quarters of Republicans (74 percent) said that colleges and universities that opened their campuses for in-person instruction made the right decision, while more than two-thirds of Democrats (68 percent) said the institutions were wrong to open. 

✅Cal State Enrollment Reached All-Time High 

—Inside Higher Ed 

     A record number of students are enrolled in the California State University system’s 23 campuses during the fall 2020 semester, system officials announced in a press release Monday.

     The system enrolled 485,549 students this fall, an all-time high, and surpassed its previous enrollment record of 484,297 during the fall 2017 semester, the release said. Fall 2020 enrollment is up 3,620 students from fall 2019, when the system enrolled 481,929 students, the release said. 

     Part of the reason for the system’s record enrollment this semester is an all-time high retention rate among first-year students who started at Cal State campuses during 2019, the release said. About 85 percent of these students returned to campus for the fall 2020 semester, according to system officials…. 

✅In Another Blow to Student Equity, Transfers to 2-Year Colleges Plunge 

—CHE 

✅Southern California counties see surge in new coronavirus cases -- In four Southern California counties — Imperial, San Bernardino, Riverside and Los Angeles — the average numbers of new daily infections per 100,000 residents over the past week rank among the top five statewide, according to The Times’ coronavirus tracker. Luke Money in the Los Angeles Times$ 

✅White House science office takes credit for 'ending' pandemic as infections mount -- The White House’s science policy office on Tuesday ranked “ending the Covid-19 pandemic” atop the list of President Donald Trump’s top first-term accomplishments, even as the country registers record amounts of infections and hospitals fill up again. Brianna Ehley Politico -- 10/28/20

✅Southern California Edison lines may have sparked massive Silverado fire in Irvine -- Southern California Edison said it is investigating whether its electrical equipment may have caused the Silverado fire, which has burned more than 7,200 acres in Irvine and caused more than 60,000 to flee their homes. Andrew J. Campa, Ruben Vives in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/27/20

✅Study finds 12% of Orange County residents had coronavirus by summer

—OC Reg

✅Miles Taylor revealed as ‘Anonymous’ writer of insider warnings about Trump 

The New York Times called Taylor a Trump ‘senior official.’ Was that accurate? 

—WashPo

"It's like the Apocalypse," he said

     We lost electricity yesterday morning, just before 9:00 a.m. At that point, I had no source of information, since I get no cell phone service in our little canyon and, of course, we had no land line, TV or wi-fi. 

     We had just experienced a serious wind storm—broken tree branches were everywhere—and so I assumed that that had temporarily taken out the power. Usually, when we lose electricity, it is restored within seconds or minutes or, on rare occasions, a few hours, so, by noon I started to wonder if something special was going on. 

     I hunkered down and did some grading, using up my laptop's battery.

     It wasn’t until later in the afternoon that my sister, Annie, who lives two hundred yards or so to the northeast of me in Bauers’ Canyon—there’s a hillock between us—showed up and informed me that there was a fire. 

     She pointed to the west. 

     Uh-oh.

     Bauers' Canyon, a wonderful 10-acre rural "compound" a mile or so above O'Neill Park, is located against a steep hill—a cliff, really—and so the view to the west is almost completely blocked. There was no sign of smoke, nor could we smell it. That was a good sign. The wind must be moving it away from us, we thought.

My place and Reb/Red's place are marked in white, lower right

     Annie told me what she knew, or thought she knew, which was frustratingly little. Somehow, she said, a fire started—she didn’t know when or where—and it was moving fast. They’re calling it the “Silverado fire.” (Silverado Canyon is several miles to the north of us; see map.)

     She said she thought that Edison had turned off the power as a precaution. (Turns out, their equipment likely started the fire, up by the junction of Santiago Canyon and Silverado Canyon.) 

     Where’d she get her information? Somehow, she had possession of some recently deceased person’s smart phone (don’t ask) and so she used it to call up her idiot friend Allan, who lives up in the Bay Area. (That service works.) Allan, a notorious dolt—he's a Trumpian, among other things—told her what he had heard and read about the fire. So our info at that point was pretty sketchy, and the iPhone was losing power fast. 

     We have an electric gate at the entrance to Bauers’ Canyon, which is great for safety—until you have a fire, and the power's out, and you might need to make a hasty exit but you can't. So we went down there and tried to roll open the gate. Naturally, there was no way. Our neighbor Gary and his pal saw us and helped out; we soon got the gate open far enough to get our cars through, if and when the time came. Whew! 

     The neighbors knew even less than we did about the fire. 

     To make a long story short, we spent the night in the dark (you should try it), and, by the morning, we were happy to find that the wind had died down quite a bit. Annie managed to use the iPhone as a wi-fi source for her laptop, though that was sketchy. I managed to make use of her Rube Goldberg system to update my students (I'm teaching online) and my dean—and my brother, in east Irvine, whose family seemed to be OK, though they're threatened with evacuation. 

     That’s when my laptop’s memory got to about zero. 

Teddy, cat

     Eventually, Teddy, my cat, and I went to take a nap. Yep, a nap. That's how we roll.

     An hour or so later, we were rudely awakened by a phone call—which was amazing, cuz my phone hasn't worked in over a week (don't ask)—and I realized that the power was back on. (It was cops asking for money. I said nope.) 

     So we have electricity again!

     I started up my laptop and found a map of the fire (see above). Turns out we’re damned close to it; it is, or was, a mile or so to the west, just over the ridge. The smoke must’ve blown away from us 'cause, again, we haven’t seen or smelled it—although, an hour ago, my sister claimed she could smell it. But she’s always claiming superpowers, including a super sniffer, and I'm skeptical.

     Annie just called and she now tells me we’re under a voluntary evacuation order. So we're packing up.

     Anyway, we’re fine right now though we’re worried about the fire. But we've been here before, especially back in 2007. 

     Don’t know about the Reb and Red Emma over in Modjeska Canyon. 

     Stay tuned, I guess.

     Yesterday, my conservative neighbor, Gary, standing among the wind refuse when he helped us with the fence, said: "I'm not much of a church-goer, but, all of a sudden, it's like the Apocalypse!"

     Yeah.

Louis and the Reb evacuating, back in 2007

UPDATE (5:50 pm): 

     Just got a call from the Reb and Red Emma who are at some taco place along Portola (near Sprouts, I guess). The fire is awfully close to their place—just over the hill in Whiting Ranch (see map). They've been evacuated and they're heading to alternative shelter. The Sheriff (or some such) came around their place at about 1:00 this afternoon and told 'em to git. They did what they could to secure their place, grabbed their "three angry cats" (and Louis, I'm sure), and rolled out.

     They're pretty sure that Lewis Long is evacuated, 'cause his neighborhood is in the fire zone (it is, according to my Register map). Earlier, they watched as tankers dumped water on those neighborhoods.

     Rebel Girl says "hi!" 

     She's pretty gloomy. She talked about the ferocious wind and reminded me that we went through all this stuff with the fire of 2007. 

     It was horrible then; it is horrible now. (The 2007 fire actually got right up to Reb's house, but it somehow survived.)

     Plus that bastard Trump is still in office!

     "Not for long," I said.

     When you're talking with the Reb, you've got to stay positive. She depends on me for that.

     According to the map, my bro's family is also in some kind of fire zone (see the bottom corner of the top tan patch). Knowing him, I'm sure they're fine. Here's hopin'.

     Teddy says "hey."

UPDATE (7:30 pm): 

     The wind has been crazy all day, mostly blowing west/northwest or north, but since 4:00 pm, it's been heading east/northeast (increasingly to the east), which moves the Whiting Ranch part closer to Modjeska Canyon. As of a couple of hours ago, it was blowing at 9 mph, though I can detect no wind at all (at my place not far from Cook's Corner).

     At about 6:00 pm (just found the email), my bro wrote: "Kind of looks like the smoke reduced to very little in the last couple of hours, at least in the area above Foothill Ranch. And the wind seems to have gone. They aren't changing the containment number, but it seems encouraging."

UPDATE (8:45 pm):
     I found this "hotspot" map for the Silverado fire, and it seems to provide a better sense of where the fire really is. Unfortunately, I don't know how current it is. Check it out:

Again, Reb's place and mine indicated with blue dots at lower right

8:30 pm: For the first time, I can smell smoke. Sheesh.

UPDATE (9:40 pm):

     Right now, the wind is headed east/southeast at 4 mph (in Live Oak Canyon). Not good. No wonder we can smell smoke. But the wind direction has been shifty all day, so there's that. And it's only 4 mph. 

2007: about a half mile from my place: toast

See also

✅Ten Years ago today: the big fire, DtB
Monday, October 23, 2017

The fire zone includes the site (Loma Ridge) of that terrible crash (84 dead) of a Marine Corps jet in 1965:

✅Flying into a mountain, DtB
Sunday, February 14, 2010

The silverado fire

 stuck in the hills here, no power, no wi-fi no cell

But doing OK

Hope Edison turns the power back on, but who knows

10-25: The country is "rounding the corner," Trump says; in fact, the White House has given up on controlling the spread of Covid

✅Coronavirus is surging in college towns. The worst spot? Texas 

—LA Times 

✅A Day-By-Day Guide to What Could Happen If This Election Goes Bad 

Election experts game out the chaos that could unfold in the minutes, hours and days after the last ballot is cast. 

—Politico Magazine 

✅‘We’re not going to control the pandemic’: White House chief’s comments undermine Trump’s message 

Mark Meadows acknowledged the situation is not easily handled, with nine days left in a presidential campaign dominated by the coronavirus. 

—Politico

     The Trump administration signaled on Sunday that it had given up on controlling the spread of the coronavirus, even as Covid-19 makes its second run through the White House, three in four Americans are concerned that they or someone they know will contract the disease, and millions of American families are suffering as negotiators struggle to clinch an elusive relief deal. 

     “We’re not going to control the pandemic,” White House chief of staff Mark Meadows told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.” “We are gonna control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas.” 

     Yet President Donald Trump — who continues to insist that the country is “rounding the corner” despite a new surge in cases — is campaigning in New Hampshire and Maine on Sunday before returning to the White House to co-host a Halloween event with first lady Melania Trump. Vice President Mike Pence will also continue to campaign instead of quarantine, after a top staffer tested positive for Covid-19 on Saturday….

10-24: Hate crimes on the rise; many won't take vaccine, when available; cats and dogs running for office

✅For fifth year in a row, hate crimes rise in Orange County — and by 24% -- The findings were released this week by the nonprofit Orange County Human Relations Commission in its 2019 Hate Crimes Report. The review cited 83 hate crimes documented by community groups, education institutions and law enforcement. Anh Do in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/23/20 

✅Violent hate crimes in L.A. hit highest level in more than a decade; white supremacist acts jump 38% -- Los Angeles County reported the highest number of violent hate crimes last year in more than a decade, with white supremacist crimes jumping by 38%, while attacks on the transgender community surged 64%, according to a new report. Richard Winton in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Coronavirus is surging in college towns. The worst spot? Texas

—LA Times

✅California Republicans face turnout burden after Trump mail ballot attacks -- Three weeks after every registered, active voter in America’s most populous state was mailed a ballot, liberal Californians are proving far more eager to return ballots than conservatives. That trend inverts voting patterns of years past — and could create opportunity for liberal campaigns while increasing turnout burdens for Republican-reliant ones. Jeremy B. White Politico -- 10/24/20 

✅‘There is a voter-suppression wing’: An ugly American tradition clouds the 2020 presidential race -- A Memphis, Tenn., poll worker turned away people wearing Black Lives Matter T-shirts, saying they couldn’t vote. Robocalls warned thousands of Michigan residents that mail-in voting could put their personal information in the hands of debt collectors and police. In Georgia, officials cut polling places by nearly 10%, even as the number of voters surged by nearly 2 million. James Rainey in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Rural California is divided, armed for revolt. What’s the matter in the State of Jefferson? -- Carlos Zapata has a message for any government official who shows up at his Tehama County restaurant and tries to enforce California’s pandemic shutdown orders. “I’ve made it very clear that if they come to shut us down, I’m going to call 100,000 people that’ll be there with guns, and what happens happens, you know?” Zapata said Tuesday. Ryan Sabalow, Lara Korte, and Jason Pohl in the Sacramento Bee$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Retiring Federal Prosecutor Goes Public With Harsh Criticism Of AG William Barr -- Phil Halpern worked as a prosecutor at the San Diego U.S. Attorney’s office for 36 years, serving six presidents and 19 different attorneys general. Amita Sharma KPBS -- 10/24/20 

✅Gov. Newsom Pledges to Ban Fracking in California – Then Greenlights More of It -- On Sept. 23, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order to ban hydrofracturing in the state by 2024. Just three weeks later, on Oct. 16, his administration approved permits to frack six new wells owned by a company with whom he has lobbying ties. That company, Aera Energy – a joint venture of Shell and ExxonMobil – is represented by the lobbying firm Axiom Advisors. Steve Horn Capital & Main -- 10/24/20 

✅CSU graduation rates continue to climb, but stymied by stubborn equity gaps -- Halfway through a 10-year initiative to increase the share of graduating students, the nation’s largest public university continues to make steady progress on improving overall graduation rates but remains stymied by stubborn equity gaps and faces the threat of backsliding amid state budget cuts and the COVID-19 pandemic, which has forced almost all instruction online. Nina Agrawal in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Cats and dogs running for ‘mayor’ in Oakland are a fuzzy antidote to your election anxiety -- One of the most contentious and nail-biting election campaigns in the Bay Area is at its peak right now. But it’s probably not the one you’re thinking about. Kellie Hwang in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Not just California: Colorado and other Western states suffering worst fires in modern history -- The wildfires result from the intensification of long term global warming trends due to human-caused climate change, experts say — and on their current trajectory, they’re not only here to stay but will grow even more powerful. Annie Vainshtein in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 10/23/20 

✅Now for some good news: California praised for recent handling of pandemic -- While other states experience deadly surges in coronavirus cases, a national public health expert says the Golden State “holds a lesson for all of us.” Barbara Feder Ostrov CalMatters -- 10/23/20 

✅Many Californians, particularly Black residents, would skip taking COVID-19 vaccine today, survey finds -- As scientists race to develop COVID-19 vaccines, a new poll shows fewer than one-third of Black residents in California plan to get immunized. Luke Money in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/23/20 

✅New forecasts show why masks are the easiest — and cheapest — way to save U.S. lives -- If Americans would stop complaining about face masks and wear them when they leave their homes, they could save well over 100,000 lives — and perhaps more than half a million — through the end of February, according to a study published Friday in Nature Medicine. Deborah Netburn in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/23/20

OC Covid numbers: worrisome uptick?

10-23: Brace for the future

✅Orange County Could See Second Coronavirus Wave by Winter 

As a potential second wave looms, some Supervisors continue pushing back against state virus guidelines. 

—Voice of OC 

     State public health officials and local epidemiologists warn there is likely going to be a second wave of Coronavirus spikes in the coming months, based on experiences in other parts of the country and world. 

      “So we’re going to have either a fall/winter wave or a winter wave — a second wave. I can’t exactly tell you when that wave will crest,” said Andrew Noymer, a public health expert and epidemiologist at UC Irvine. 

      “We had this big wave in the summertime, in June/July. everyone remembers that. But that’s not the epidemic. This epidemic is going to have waves — plural. That wave that has now come and gone, that’s not the epidemic gone and over,” Noymer said in a Wednesday phone interview. 

     Secretary of the state Health and Human Services Agency, Dr. Mark Ghaly, said hospitalizations could increase by next month. 

      “We predict a 46 percent increase a month from now. So down from where we were before, but still an area of concern,” he said at a Tuesday news conference. “Many states across the nation and frankly nations across the globe are facing new waves of cases,” Ghaly said. 

      Dr. Thomas Cesario, an infectious disease doctor and former dean of the UC Irvine School of Medicine, also said things look to be trending back up. 

Valery Boothby (1906-1982)
German actress

      “Looks like we’ve had a little uptick. So I think that second wave may be quite likely,” Cesario said in a Thursday phone interview. “I don’t know it’ll be as bad as the first, but I think it’s entirely possible we’re going to see a blip.” 

      “If you look at the curve, across the country, you can see that curve starts to go back up again,” Cesario said. 

     Dr. Matthew Zahn, medical director of the county Health Care Agency’s communicable disease control division, also said he expects an uptick. 

     “I think that we are all anticipating a potential increase in the number of cases simply because we are entering cold and flu season,” Zahn said at a Thursday news conference. “The idea is that as it gets colder and people go inside and crowd inside more often.” 

     But, Zahn said, if people follow current public health safety measures, it may be avoidable. 

     During the summer case spikes, over 700 people were hospitalized at one point in July.

     The spikes came after an intense mask debate in OC after former health officer Dr. Nichole Quick issued a mask order before the Memorial Day reopenings, which saw restaurants and other businesses rush to reopen their doors. 

     The mask order sparked protests and prompted a public backlash, with Quick eventually resigned by early June after receiving scores of threats, including one Supervisor Michelle Steel classified as a “death threat.” Since the pandemic began in March, the virus has killed 1,434 county residents out of 57,848 confirmed cases, according to the county Health Care Agency.

 . . . 

     “Basically Orange County is just plotting along,” Noymer said. “There’s every reason to expect a fall wave and all that. Our summer wave was quite late. So the fall wave will probably be a little later. I’m expecting more waves.” 

    [Supervisor Michelle] Steel continues to rail against state virus guidelines, including the health equity measure, which requires less than a 5.2 percent positivity rate in the county’s poorest neighborhoods. 

 . . . 

     Steel and other county supervisors have been pushing for Disneyland to reopen. 

     UC Irvine economist Ami Glazer said reopening Disneyland likely won’t fix the county’s budget woes like officials are hoping for. 

     “Transportation is down 46 percent. It has had some increase since July, but not dramatically. But that suggests that tourism, if Disney does open, it’s not going to have a huge effect. And we know that from Disney World in Orlando,” Glazer said…. 

✅It Was the Worst Day of the Pandemic. The U.S. Is Almost There Again. 

The United States reported more new cases of the coronavirus on July 16 than on any other day of the last seven months. The country is now nearing that record. 

—NYT

✅Covid-19 hospitalizations have risen in 38 states over the past week 

—WashPo 

✅America is poised to enter into its worst stretch yet of the pandemic 

—WashPo

✅Wearing masks could save more than 100,000 US lives through February, new study suggests

—CNN

[Could, but won't.]

Masato "Mas" Hayashi

IVC Family, 

On behalf of Irvine Valley College, I would like to extend condolences to the family, friends, and colleagues of retired IVC math professor Masato "Mas" Hayashi who passed away peacefully on September 25 at the age of 81. Private services were held on October 17. Professor Hayashi joined the District in January 1979 as one of the founding faculty of the Saddleback College North Campus. He retired in July 2014. We will remember Professor Hayashi not only for his kindness, generosity, and sense of humor but also for his 35 dedicated years of service to our students. An endowed scholarship has been created through the IVC Foundation in his memory and to honor his teaching career. If you would like to contribute, you can do so here. 

Sincerely, 

Dr. John Hernandez John Hernandez, PhD 

President Irvine Valley College

Notice in OC Register, Oct 21: here

Europe's "second wave"

     WOW, things are really bad in parts of Europe, Covid-wise. Check out this NYT article that lays it all out:

Where Europe’s Second Wave Is Filling Up Hospitals

MEANWHILE, IN ORANGE COUNTY:

10-22: Students cheat. What to do? PLUS James Randi dies (What to do?)

✅Students Cheat. How Much Does It Matter? 

As the pandemic continues, the debate grows louder. 

—CHE 

✅OC Prosecutors ‘Inappropriately Abandoned’ Plan to Tell Defendants About Informant Violations, DA Says 

—Voice of OC 

     Orange County prosecutors “inappropriately abandoned” their plans to notify defendants about informant violations after an appeals court found prosecutors had systemically violated defendants’ rights with the illegal informant program, according to a little-noticed passage in a report by DA Todd Spitzer’s office that’s sparking a new round of cover-up accusations. 

     The report, issued in June by DA special prosecutor Pat Dixon, centers on Orange County’s biggest law enforcement scandal in decades – centered on misuse of jailhouse informants and lies in court testimony that hid evidence of the wrongdoing that led to the entire DA’s office being kicked off the biggest mass murder case in the county’s history. 

     The report notes that in June 2016, after the informant violations were exposed in court, then-DA Tony Rackauckas announced his office would review a key internal document in the scandal, known as the “special handling log,” and disclose evidence of wrongdoing by law enforcement that had been wrongfully kept secret from defendants and courts. 

     But the DA’s office wrongfully dropped it, according to the special investigation commissioned by the current DA…. 

✅Top defense attorney accuses OC authorities of withholding evidence on untold number of cases 

—OC Reg 

✅Is It Time for All Students to Take Ethnic Studies? 

As ethnic studies requirements are put in place in California, capping years of struggle, educators discuss why it's important to talk about race in the classroom. 

—Inside Higher Ed 

✅Cal State Fullerton raises the flag to support National Coming Out Day 

—OC Reg 

✅DHS Arrests International Students, Threatens College Staff for ‘Willful Ignorance’ of Student-Visa Program 

—CHE 

✅Early voter turnout smashing California election records -- More than 4.5 million Californians have already cast ballots in the 2020 general election — and there’re still 12 days to go. Roughly one-fifth of the 21.5 million ballots mailed to registered voters had been processed as of Tuesday evening, blowing away previous election totals. Dylan Svoboda CalMatters -- 10/22/20 

✅‘Tweeting at the television doesn’t fix things.’ Obama chastises Trump at rally for Biden -- Former President Obama castigated President Trump as he hit the campaign trail for the first time in person Wednesday in Philadelphia to stump for his former vice president, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Matt Pearce in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/22/20 

✅California has escaped the national surge in coronavirus cases. But new dangers lie ahead -- They credit Gov. Gavin Newsom’s overhauled system — introduced Aug. 28 and much tougher than the state’s disastrous first reopening — as a big reason for California having so far staved off a new surge in cases. Rong-Gong Lin II in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/21/20

✅James Randi, Magician Who Debunked Paranormal Claims, Dies at 92 

Known professionally as the Amazing Randi, he dedicated his life to exposing seers who did not see, healers who did not heal and many others. 

NYT

James Randi, RIP