A disaster grounded on incompetence

     As a society, we’ve experienced many disasters over the years: wars, pandemics, economic downturns, natural disasters, etc.

     Aside from war—Iraq, etc.—these calamities have not derived from incompetence.

     That’s what we’ve got this time with Covid-19: disaster built upon, and fueled by, incompetence.

* * *

     The 5-member (4 Republicans, 1 Democrat) OC Board of Education has organized a “panel of experts” who, today, will recommend that public “schools should return in fall without face masks, social distancing, reduced class sizes” (see OC Board of Education Panel Calls for a Fall Return to Classes with No Masks or Distancing. Voice of OC).

     These recommendations contradict the best science.

Wagner

     Among the members of that panel is Don Wagner, Supervisor for OC’s 3rd District. It's no surprise that he favors such recommendations. As you know, he's pushed back against mask-wearing mandates.

     These recommendations contradict the recommendations of the OC’s Dept of Education, which endorses the recommendations of the California Department of Education. They contradict the best advice available.

     According to the Voice of OC, the California Department of Education “recommends all staff and students should wear cloth face coverings or face shields while at school or on a bus, and maintain 6 feet of physical distance during school activities.”

     OK, so the OC Board of Education is blowin’ off the state’s experts and even the County’s own Dept of Ed.

     The Board of Education’s panel’s report is dishonest to boot. According to the Voice, “Some of the panel’s … sources … explicitly recommended guidance that they [the panel] chose to go against multiple times, or featured contextual details that were left out [by the panel] in the county’s presentation.”

     The panel cites an NPR story about a school district in New York that managed to continue in-class instruction without seeing a rise in Covid cases. But that school district “implemented strict social distancing protocols, including breaking the kids off into small groups and keeping them separate from one another, and that face masks were mandatory for all staff and kids.” That is, it implemented the steps that the panel rejects.

     The panel fails to mention that.

45th Congressional Dist.

    The panel also appealed to a study by the American Academy of Pediatrics, which acknowledges that “children and adolescents are much less likely to spread the virus.” But the panel failed to mention that the AAP’s study “advised face coverings for elementary school children ‘when harms do not outweigh benefits,’ and said that desks should be placed three to six feet apart if feasible. It also endorsed the use of masks in all secondary schools, and said that physical distancing could have a greater effect there.”

     The panel’s report, which recommends schools carry on as usual, reasons that, since children represent a low risk Covid-wise, it follows that major changes need not be implemented in schools. But, obviously, the matter is not that simple, for these children can transmit Covid even if they do not suffer from the condition or bear symptoms. C'mon!

     The panel seems to emphasize financial considerations. As we know, districts acquire state money per registered student. Unless local school districts carry on as usual, they’re liable to experience less registration and thus acquire less money.

     But money isn’t everything, is it? Surely the lives of citizens is more important.

     The panel notes that, partly because of poor parent cooperation, remote learning in local public schools has been an utter failure. That might be true. But clearly it is not true necessarily and it is not true everywhere. Remote learning is often done better than it has recently been done in Orange County public schools. Why ignore the option of making an effort to do better, as other districts and parents do?

* * *

Always clumsily refers to his service

     Let’s turn to another case: Greg Raths, who is on the Mission Viejo City Council. He’s running against Democrat Katie Porter for her seat in the House of Representatives (the 45th congressional district).

     I looked him up, read his views.

     According to the Voice, Raths “is calling for Orange County to reopen at a rally planned for July 25 at a park [in Mission Viejo] in direct opposition to the city’s current policies.” (See Mission Viejo Councilman Plans to Host Reopen Rally in Park Against City Guidelines.) 

     A rally?

     According to Mission Viejo’s City Attorney, “The city’s overall position is we want to minimize concentrations of people, minimize situations that don’t lend themselves to social distancing … The city is taking all efforts to not encourage crowds and socialization.” 

     There’s a Facebook page promoting Raths' event. According to the Voice, “The page says that masks at the event are optional and hopes to see a turnout of at least 100 community members.”

     According to Raths, “We stand on the side of the silent majority [Nixon's infamous phrase] who closed their businesses only to see them reopen for days — before being shut down again. I stand for the people in this country who know something is wrong and will no longer take it,” Raths wrote in the article (posted on his LinkedIn page).  

     Well, nonpartisan medical experts (CDC) are clear that we should engage in social distancing and should wear masks. What is it, exactly, that “people in this country” know is wrong? He seems to be alluding to some dark conspiracy. Or lies. But which conspiracy? Which lies? What on Earth is he talking about? The pandemic is happening and it is getting worse! We need to take strong steps to fight it!

     The Voice recently reported that “Raths blocked constituents with dissenting opinions on his campaign pages.”

     Yeah, he's blocking expressions of reason. What kind of a leader is that?

* * *

     Elsewhere, I found Raths' opinion of the Governor’s recent decision temporarily to close Orange County beaches. “I strongly believe that Governor Newsom's ill-advised decision to close our Orange County beaches is wrong,” he wrote. He goes on: “Science, and those in the field of medicine, have documented for decades the importance of sunlight and fresh air to the proper functioning of the needs of the human body. Importantly, new scientific lab results from the Department of Homeland Security suggest that heat, humidity and sunlight slow and even kill the coronavirus. … If the sun, fresh air, and our beautiful beaches have been found to fight and win against the coronavirus, what reason is there to shut down the beaches?”

     Wow. This guy has shit for brains. (Do I gotta spell it out?)

     Many in Orange County, and across the country, are similarly brained.

     And we’re goin’ down the tubes, man.

P.S.:

• ✅OC Board of Education votes to support return to school without social distancing, masks, OC Reg (7-13)

• ✅America Drank Away Its Children’s Future: As the school year looms, the pandemic is still raging. New York Times (7-14)
  
  Paul Krugman

...‘Some activities hold up fairly well when moved online. … Education isn’t one of those activities. We now have overwhelming confirmation of something we already suspected: For many, perhaps most students there is no substitute for actually being in a classroom.

     But rooms full of students are potential Petri dishes, even if the young are less likely to die from Covid-19 than the old. Other countries have managed to reopen schools relatively safely — but they did so with much lower infection rates than currently prevail in America, and with adequate testing, which we still don’t have in many hot spots.

     So we’re now facing a terrible, unnecessary dilemma. If we reopen in-person education, we risk feeding an out-of-control pandemic. If we don’t, we impair the development of millions of American students, inflicting long-term damage on their lives and careers.

     And the reason we’re in this position is that states, cheered on by the Trump administration, rushed to allow large parties and reopen bars. In a real sense America drank away its children’s future.

     Now what? At this point there are probably as many infected Americans as there were in March. So what we should be doing is admitting that we blew it, and doing a severe lockdown all over again — and this time listening to the experts before reopening. Unfortunately, it’s now too late to avoid disrupting education, but the sooner we deal with this the sooner we can get our society back on track.

     But we don’t have the kind of leaders we need. Instead, we have the likes of Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, Florida’s governor, politicians who refuse to listen to experts and never admit having been wrong.

     So while there have been a few grudging policy adjustments, the main response we’re seeing to colossal policy failure is a hysterical attempt to shift the blame. Some officials are trying to besmirch Dr. Fauci’s reputation; others are diving into unhinged conspiracy theories.

     As a result, the outlook is grim. This pandemic is going to get worse before it gets better, and the nation will suffer permanent damage.

A bold but necessary move

✅ California shuts bars, indoor dining and most gyms, churches

OC Register

SACRAMENTO — California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday extended the closure of bars and indoor dining statewide and ordered gyms, churches and hair salons closed in most places as coronavirus cases keep rising in the nation’s most populated state.

     On July 1, Newsom ordered 19 counties with a surging number of confirmed infections to close bars and indoor operations at restaurants, wineries, zoos and family entertainment centers like bowling alleys and miniature golf.

     The Democratic governor extended that order statewide Monday. He also imposed additional restrictions on the 30 counties now with rising numbers, including the most populated of Los Angeles and San Diego, by ordering worship services to stop and gyms, hair salons, indoor malls and offices for noncritical industries to shut down.

     “The data suggests not everybody is practicing common sense,” said Newsom, whose order takes effect immediately. He didn’t include schools, which are scheduled to resume in a few weeks in much of the state. But Monday, the state’s two largest school districts, San Diego and Los Angeles, announced their students would start the school year with online learning only. LA Unified is the second-largest public school district in the country.

     In March, California was the first state to issue a mandatory, statewide stay-at-home order to slow the spread of the coronavirus. The order appeared to work as cases stabilized in the ensuing weeks while other states grappled with huge increases.

     But the order devastated the world’s fifth-largest economy, with more than 7.5 million people filing for unemployment benefits. Newsom moved quickly to let most businesses reopen in May. Like other states that took similar steps, a subsequent rise in cases and hospitalizations led him to impose new restrictions this month      Newsom has compared his strategy of opening and closing businesses as a “dimmer switch,” highlighting the flexibility needed as public health officials monitor the virus’s progress

     California confirmed 8,358 new coronavirus cases on Sunday. Cases have increased 47% over the past two weeks, while hospitalizations have jumped 28% during the same time period.

     Overall, California has reported more than 329,100 cases and more than 7,000 deaths, though infections are probably higher because some people don’t show symptoms and there’s a lack of testing.