"It's like the Apocalypse," he said

     We lost electricity yesterday morning, just before 9:00 a.m. At that point, I had no source of information, since I get no cell phone service in our little canyon and, of course, we had no land line, TV or wi-fi. 

     We had just experienced a serious wind storm—broken tree branches were everywhere—and so I assumed that that had temporarily taken out the power. Usually, when we lose electricity, it is restored within seconds or minutes or, on rare occasions, a few hours, so, by noon I started to wonder if something special was going on. 

     I hunkered down and did some grading, using up my laptop's battery.

     It wasn’t until later in the afternoon that my sister, Annie, who lives two hundred yards or so to the northeast of me in Bauers’ Canyon—there’s a hillock between us—showed up and informed me that there was a fire. 

     She pointed to the west. 

     Uh-oh.

     Bauers' Canyon, a wonderful 10-acre rural "compound" a mile or so above O'Neill Park, is located against a steep hill—a cliff, really—and so the view to the west is almost completely blocked. There was no sign of smoke, nor could we smell it. That was a good sign. The wind must be moving it away from us, we thought.

My place and Reb/Red's place are marked in white, lower right

     Annie told me what she knew, or thought she knew, which was frustratingly little. Somehow, she said, a fire started—she didn’t know when or where—and it was moving fast. They’re calling it the “Silverado fire.” (Silverado Canyon is several miles to the north of us; see map.)

     She said she thought that Edison had turned off the power as a precaution. (Turns out, their equipment likely started the fire, up by the junction of Santiago Canyon and Silverado Canyon.) 

     Where’d she get her information? Somehow, she had possession of some recently deceased person’s smart phone (don’t ask) and so she used it to call up her idiot friend Allan, who lives up in the Bay Area. (That service works.) Allan, a notorious dolt—he's a Trumpian, among other things—told her what he had heard and read about the fire. So our info at that point was pretty sketchy, and the iPhone was losing power fast. 

     We have an electric gate at the entrance to Bauers’ Canyon, which is great for safety—until you have a fire, and the power's out, and you might need to make a hasty exit but you can't. So we went down there and tried to roll open the gate. Naturally, there was no way. Our neighbor Gary and his pal saw us and helped out; we soon got the gate open far enough to get our cars through, if and when the time came. Whew! 

     The neighbors knew even less than we did about the fire. 

     To make a long story short, we spent the night in the dark (you should try it), and, by the morning, we were happy to find that the wind had died down quite a bit. Annie managed to use the iPhone as a wi-fi source for her laptop, though that was sketchy. I managed to make use of her Rube Goldberg system to update my students (I'm teaching online) and my dean—and my brother, in east Irvine, whose family seemed to be OK, though they're threatened with evacuation. 

     That’s when my laptop’s memory got to about zero. 

Teddy, cat

     Eventually, Teddy, my cat, and I went to take a nap. Yep, a nap. That's how we roll.

     An hour or so later, we were rudely awakened by a phone call—which was amazing, cuz my phone hasn't worked in over a week (don't ask)—and I realized that the power was back on. (It was cops asking for money. I said nope.) 

     So we have electricity again!

     I started up my laptop and found a map of the fire (see above). Turns out we’re damned close to it; it is, or was, a mile or so to the west, just over the ridge. The smoke must’ve blown away from us 'cause, again, we haven’t seen or smelled it—although, an hour ago, my sister claimed she could smell it. But she’s always claiming superpowers, including a super sniffer, and I'm skeptical.

     Annie just called and she now tells me we’re under a voluntary evacuation order. So we're packing up.

     Anyway, we’re fine right now though we’re worried about the fire. But we've been here before, especially back in 2007. 

     Don’t know about the Reb and Red Emma over in Modjeska Canyon. 

     Stay tuned, I guess.

     Yesterday, my conservative neighbor, Gary, standing among the wind refuse when he helped us with the fence, said: "I'm not much of a church-goer, but, all of a sudden, it's like the Apocalypse!"

     Yeah.

Louis and the Reb evacuating, back in 2007

UPDATE (5:50 pm): 

     Just got a call from the Reb and Red Emma who are at some taco place along Portola (near Sprouts, I guess). The fire is awfully close to their place—just over the hill in Whiting Ranch (see map). They've been evacuated and they're heading to alternative shelter. The Sheriff (or some such) came around their place at about 1:00 this afternoon and told 'em to git. They did what they could to secure their place, grabbed their "three angry cats" (and Louis, I'm sure), and rolled out.

     They're pretty sure that Lewis Long is evacuated, 'cause his neighborhood is in the fire zone (it is, according to my Register map). Earlier, they watched as tankers dumped water on those neighborhoods.

     Rebel Girl says "hi!" 

     She's pretty gloomy. She talked about the ferocious wind and reminded me that we went through all this stuff with the fire of 2007. 

     It was horrible then; it is horrible now. (The 2007 fire actually got right up to Reb's house, but it somehow survived.)

     Plus that bastard Trump is still in office!

     "Not for long," I said.

     When you're talking with the Reb, you've got to stay positive. She depends on me for that.

     According to the map, my bro's family is also in some kind of fire zone (see the bottom corner of the top tan patch). Knowing him, I'm sure they're fine. Here's hopin'.

     Teddy says "hey."

UPDATE (7:30 pm): 

     The wind has been crazy all day, mostly blowing west/northwest or north, but since 4:00 pm, it's been heading east/northeast (increasingly to the east), which moves the Whiting Ranch part closer to Modjeska Canyon. As of a couple of hours ago, it was blowing at 9 mph, though I can detect no wind at all (at my place not far from Cook's Corner).

     At about 6:00 pm (just found the email), my bro wrote: "Kind of looks like the smoke reduced to very little in the last couple of hours, at least in the area above Foothill Ranch. And the wind seems to have gone. They aren't changing the containment number, but it seems encouraging."

UPDATE (8:45 pm):
     I found this "hotspot" map for the Silverado fire, and it seems to provide a better sense of where the fire really is. Unfortunately, I don't know how current it is. Check it out:

Again, Reb's place and mine indicated with blue dots at lower right

8:30 pm: For the first time, I can smell smoke. Sheesh.

UPDATE (9:40 pm):

     Right now, the wind is headed east/southeast at 4 mph (in Live Oak Canyon). Not good. No wonder we can smell smoke. But the wind direction has been shifty all day, so there's that. And it's only 4 mph. 

2007: about a half mile from my place: toast

See also

✅Ten Years ago today: the big fire, DtB
Monday, October 23, 2017

The fire zone includes the site (Loma Ridge) of that terrible crash (84 dead) of a Marine Corps jet in 1965:

✅Flying into a mountain, DtB
Sunday, February 14, 2010

The silverado fire

 stuck in the hills here, no power, no wi-fi no cell

But doing OK

Hope Edison turns the power back on, but who knows

10-25: The country is "rounding the corner," Trump says; in fact, the White House has given up on controlling the spread of Covid

✅Coronavirus is surging in college towns. The worst spot? Texas 

—LA Times 

✅A Day-By-Day Guide to What Could Happen If This Election Goes Bad 

Election experts game out the chaos that could unfold in the minutes, hours and days after the last ballot is cast. 

—Politico Magazine 

✅‘We’re not going to control the pandemic’: White House chief’s comments undermine Trump’s message 

Mark Meadows acknowledged the situation is not easily handled, with nine days left in a presidential campaign dominated by the coronavirus. 

—Politico

     The Trump administration signaled on Sunday that it had given up on controlling the spread of the coronavirus, even as Covid-19 makes its second run through the White House, three in four Americans are concerned that they or someone they know will contract the disease, and millions of American families are suffering as negotiators struggle to clinch an elusive relief deal. 

     “We’re not going to control the pandemic,” White House chief of staff Mark Meadows told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.” “We are gonna control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas.” 

     Yet President Donald Trump — who continues to insist that the country is “rounding the corner” despite a new surge in cases — is campaigning in New Hampshire and Maine on Sunday before returning to the White House to co-host a Halloween event with first lady Melania Trump. Vice President Mike Pence will also continue to campaign instead of quarantine, after a top staffer tested positive for Covid-19 on Saturday….

10-24: Hate crimes on the rise; many won't take vaccine, when available; cats and dogs running for office

✅For fifth year in a row, hate crimes rise in Orange County — and by 24% -- The findings were released this week by the nonprofit Orange County Human Relations Commission in its 2019 Hate Crimes Report. The review cited 83 hate crimes documented by community groups, education institutions and law enforcement. Anh Do in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/23/20 

✅Violent hate crimes in L.A. hit highest level in more than a decade; white supremacist acts jump 38% -- Los Angeles County reported the highest number of violent hate crimes last year in more than a decade, with white supremacist crimes jumping by 38%, while attacks on the transgender community surged 64%, according to a new report. Richard Winton in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Coronavirus is surging in college towns. The worst spot? Texas

—LA Times

✅California Republicans face turnout burden after Trump mail ballot attacks -- Three weeks after every registered, active voter in America’s most populous state was mailed a ballot, liberal Californians are proving far more eager to return ballots than conservatives. That trend inverts voting patterns of years past — and could create opportunity for liberal campaigns while increasing turnout burdens for Republican-reliant ones. Jeremy B. White Politico -- 10/24/20 

✅‘There is a voter-suppression wing’: An ugly American tradition clouds the 2020 presidential race -- A Memphis, Tenn., poll worker turned away people wearing Black Lives Matter T-shirts, saying they couldn’t vote. Robocalls warned thousands of Michigan residents that mail-in voting could put their personal information in the hands of debt collectors and police. In Georgia, officials cut polling places by nearly 10%, even as the number of voters surged by nearly 2 million. James Rainey in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Rural California is divided, armed for revolt. What’s the matter in the State of Jefferson? -- Carlos Zapata has a message for any government official who shows up at his Tehama County restaurant and tries to enforce California’s pandemic shutdown orders. “I’ve made it very clear that if they come to shut us down, I’m going to call 100,000 people that’ll be there with guns, and what happens happens, you know?” Zapata said Tuesday. Ryan Sabalow, Lara Korte, and Jason Pohl in the Sacramento Bee$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Retiring Federal Prosecutor Goes Public With Harsh Criticism Of AG William Barr -- Phil Halpern worked as a prosecutor at the San Diego U.S. Attorney’s office for 36 years, serving six presidents and 19 different attorneys general. Amita Sharma KPBS -- 10/24/20 

✅Gov. Newsom Pledges to Ban Fracking in California – Then Greenlights More of It -- On Sept. 23, California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order to ban hydrofracturing in the state by 2024. Just three weeks later, on Oct. 16, his administration approved permits to frack six new wells owned by a company with whom he has lobbying ties. That company, Aera Energy – a joint venture of Shell and ExxonMobil – is represented by the lobbying firm Axiom Advisors. Steve Horn Capital & Main -- 10/24/20 

✅CSU graduation rates continue to climb, but stymied by stubborn equity gaps -- Halfway through a 10-year initiative to increase the share of graduating students, the nation’s largest public university continues to make steady progress on improving overall graduation rates but remains stymied by stubborn equity gaps and faces the threat of backsliding amid state budget cuts and the COVID-19 pandemic, which has forced almost all instruction online. Nina Agrawal in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Cats and dogs running for ‘mayor’ in Oakland are a fuzzy antidote to your election anxiety -- One of the most contentious and nail-biting election campaigns in the Bay Area is at its peak right now. But it’s probably not the one you’re thinking about. Kellie Hwang in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 10/24/20 

✅Not just California: Colorado and other Western states suffering worst fires in modern history -- The wildfires result from the intensification of long term global warming trends due to human-caused climate change, experts say — and on their current trajectory, they’re not only here to stay but will grow even more powerful. Annie Vainshtein in the San Francisco Chronicle$ -- 10/23/20 

✅Now for some good news: California praised for recent handling of pandemic -- While other states experience deadly surges in coronavirus cases, a national public health expert says the Golden State “holds a lesson for all of us.” Barbara Feder Ostrov CalMatters -- 10/23/20 

✅Many Californians, particularly Black residents, would skip taking COVID-19 vaccine today, survey finds -- As scientists race to develop COVID-19 vaccines, a new poll shows fewer than one-third of Black residents in California plan to get immunized. Luke Money in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/23/20 

✅New forecasts show why masks are the easiest — and cheapest — way to save U.S. lives -- If Americans would stop complaining about face masks and wear them when they leave their homes, they could save well over 100,000 lives — and perhaps more than half a million — through the end of February, according to a study published Friday in Nature Medicine. Deborah Netburn in the Los Angeles Times$ -- 10/23/20

OC Covid numbers: worrisome uptick?

10-23: Brace for the future

✅Orange County Could See Second Coronavirus Wave by Winter 

As a potential second wave looms, some Supervisors continue pushing back against state virus guidelines. 

—Voice of OC 

     State public health officials and local epidemiologists warn there is likely going to be a second wave of Coronavirus spikes in the coming months, based on experiences in other parts of the country and world. 

      “So we’re going to have either a fall/winter wave or a winter wave — a second wave. I can’t exactly tell you when that wave will crest,” said Andrew Noymer, a public health expert and epidemiologist at UC Irvine. 

      “We had this big wave in the summertime, in June/July. everyone remembers that. But that’s not the epidemic. This epidemic is going to have waves — plural. That wave that has now come and gone, that’s not the epidemic gone and over,” Noymer said in a Wednesday phone interview. 

     Secretary of the state Health and Human Services Agency, Dr. Mark Ghaly, said hospitalizations could increase by next month. 

      “We predict a 46 percent increase a month from now. So down from where we were before, but still an area of concern,” he said at a Tuesday news conference. “Many states across the nation and frankly nations across the globe are facing new waves of cases,” Ghaly said. 

      Dr. Thomas Cesario, an infectious disease doctor and former dean of the UC Irvine School of Medicine, also said things look to be trending back up. 

Valery Boothby (1906-1982)
German actress

      “Looks like we’ve had a little uptick. So I think that second wave may be quite likely,” Cesario said in a Thursday phone interview. “I don’t know it’ll be as bad as the first, but I think it’s entirely possible we’re going to see a blip.” 

      “If you look at the curve, across the country, you can see that curve starts to go back up again,” Cesario said. 

     Dr. Matthew Zahn, medical director of the county Health Care Agency’s communicable disease control division, also said he expects an uptick. 

     “I think that we are all anticipating a potential increase in the number of cases simply because we are entering cold and flu season,” Zahn said at a Thursday news conference. “The idea is that as it gets colder and people go inside and crowd inside more often.” 

     But, Zahn said, if people follow current public health safety measures, it may be avoidable. 

     During the summer case spikes, over 700 people were hospitalized at one point in July.

     The spikes came after an intense mask debate in OC after former health officer Dr. Nichole Quick issued a mask order before the Memorial Day reopenings, which saw restaurants and other businesses rush to reopen their doors. 

     The mask order sparked protests and prompted a public backlash, with Quick eventually resigned by early June after receiving scores of threats, including one Supervisor Michelle Steel classified as a “death threat.” Since the pandemic began in March, the virus has killed 1,434 county residents out of 57,848 confirmed cases, according to the county Health Care Agency.

 . . . 

     “Basically Orange County is just plotting along,” Noymer said. “There’s every reason to expect a fall wave and all that. Our summer wave was quite late. So the fall wave will probably be a little later. I’m expecting more waves.” 

    [Supervisor Michelle] Steel continues to rail against state virus guidelines, including the health equity measure, which requires less than a 5.2 percent positivity rate in the county’s poorest neighborhoods. 

 . . . 

     Steel and other county supervisors have been pushing for Disneyland to reopen. 

     UC Irvine economist Ami Glazer said reopening Disneyland likely won’t fix the county’s budget woes like officials are hoping for. 

     “Transportation is down 46 percent. It has had some increase since July, but not dramatically. But that suggests that tourism, if Disney does open, it’s not going to have a huge effect. And we know that from Disney World in Orlando,” Glazer said…. 

✅It Was the Worst Day of the Pandemic. The U.S. Is Almost There Again. 

The United States reported more new cases of the coronavirus on July 16 than on any other day of the last seven months. The country is now nearing that record. 

—NYT

✅Covid-19 hospitalizations have risen in 38 states over the past week 

—WashPo 

✅America is poised to enter into its worst stretch yet of the pandemic 

—WashPo

✅Wearing masks could save more than 100,000 US lives through February, new study suggests

—CNN

[Could, but won't.]

Masato "Mas" Hayashi

IVC Family, 

On behalf of Irvine Valley College, I would like to extend condolences to the family, friends, and colleagues of retired IVC math professor Masato "Mas" Hayashi who passed away peacefully on September 25 at the age of 81. Private services were held on October 17. Professor Hayashi joined the District in January 1979 as one of the founding faculty of the Saddleback College North Campus. He retired in July 2014. We will remember Professor Hayashi not only for his kindness, generosity, and sense of humor but also for his 35 dedicated years of service to our students. An endowed scholarship has been created through the IVC Foundation in his memory and to honor his teaching career. If you would like to contribute, you can do so here. 

Sincerely, 

Dr. John Hernandez John Hernandez, PhD 

President Irvine Valley College

Notice in OC Register, Oct 21: here

Europe's "second wave"

     WOW, things are really bad in parts of Europe, Covid-wise. Check out this NYT article that lays it all out:

Where Europe’s Second Wave Is Filling Up Hospitals

MEANWHILE, IN ORANGE COUNTY: