Thursday, October 29, 2009

UPDATE: does Melissa Fox have a chance in the 70th AD after all?

Today, supporters of 70th Assembly Democratic candidate Melissa Fox wrote us to rebut my suggestion (see Good news for Don Wagner) that her chances of prevailing (against the Republican candidate—perhaps Don Wagner) are “slim.” Said one reader,

Thank you for the mention of Democrat Melissa Fox in the Assembly race in the 70th AD. 

But her chances are not slim.

 In fact, Obama carried the 70th AD by a significant and stunning margin of 8,721 votes (the last Democrat to win here was FDR). Prop 8 won by only .1% in the 70th AD, and several of its largest communities – including Irvine and Laguna Beach—are majority Democrat in voting if not yet in registration. 
The demographics and politics of the 70th AD has changed. A Democrat can win, especially a Democrat as smart and hard-working as Melissa Fox. 

And especially if those who want to stop a right-wing wacko like Don Wagner from representing us in Sacramento get involved in Melissa's campaign.

A more hostile Fox partisan wrote:

Are you so whipped that you think a district that Obama won by 8,721 votes is out of reach?
 If so, then dissolve your blog! 
If not, why don't you get on board with Melissa Fox, who can beat the shit out of Toll Road Jerry Amante or Book Burner Don.

Another reader wrote:

…Like the rest of us, [Dissenters have] seen this scenario before—as well [I] have. [L]et's not pretend, even as we work for change. 
Besides, voter turnout of OC Republican voters in the last election was down—just as Dem voters and new voters was up. So—we'll see.
 But I think chances of El Don going to Sacto are pretty good.

Melissa Fox for Assembly

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Many thanks to the Dissenters, who have uncovered and exposed many of the shenanigans of the far-right cabal that is running the SOCCD, and especially the craziness of their front-man Don Wagner, who pulled district from the American Library Association and thinks it would be a good idea to beat children in elementary school. (Question: What aspect of Wagner’s supposedly libertarian philosophy says its okay to have government employees beat our kids?)

It has been a long time since a Democrat made a meaningful challenge to the right-wing machine in the 70th AD, and so your skepticism is certainly understandable. The last Democrat to run in the 70th didn’t even file a candidate statement, didn’t raise any money, and had no organization.

Melissa Fox is not that kind of candidate. She has already raised more money than the last Democrat raised in the entire election cycle, has put together a strong organization both on the ground and online (the Orange County Register said that her “digital campaign easily overshadows the online efforts of all of the Republicans combined”), is meeting voters and campaigning hard, and means to win.

Of course, we can’t know for sure who will win the Assembly race for the 70th AD in November 2010. But we know that Obama stunned the Orange County Republican Party in 2008 by winning the 70th AD by a substantial margin. We also know that “Spanky” Don Wagner’s values (either his book burning tendencies or his beat-the-kids approach to education) are not the values of the majority of the district’s voters.

I encourage the Dissenters to visit Melissa Fox's website and to meet with her in person -- I'm sure you'll be impressed, and be happy that there is finally a serious challenge to the far right wing extremists that have been running the 70th AD.

Anonymous said...

Okay, I'm all for a Democrat winning the seat (REALLY), but any candidate worth her salt would have included her URL in the previous comment! We're supposed to visit your website but you don't tell us how to get there!

It's things like this that show the Democrats are never well organized in the OC. Melissa -- get organized. Raise LOTS of money. Doesn't matter that you've already raised more than your predecessor (who what -- raised maybe $1,000?) Don't pull a Steve Young. Campaign the hell out of the OC and maybe you'll be successful. I certainly hope so.

Roy Bauer said...

I do wish readers would notice that I provided a link to Ms. Fox' website at the end of this post (and in the earlier post). Sheesh,

Anonymous said...

Great stuff BUT I do find the new format makes it more diffiuclt to figure out just when one post ends and another begins...

Gary Kephart said...

It was easy finding her campaign website. I googled "melissa fox assembly" and her's was the fourth entry.

Anonymous said...

The 70th is an uphill battle for any Democrat, but if anyone can do it Melissa can. Why?

1) She started early and has been raising money at a good clip.

2) She's smart and is running a good campaign so far, doing all the right things.

3) She's female. A lot of voters, Dem, Rep, and otherwise, will vote for a female over a male. (Yes, it may be silly but it's true.)

4) She's attractive and charismatic. It shouldn't make a difference, but particularly for women it does.

5) She has the enthusiastic support of her entire extended family. This may sound trivial, but ask anyone who has run whether it makes a difference. It makes an ENORMOUS difference.

6) She's tough. Melissa has accomplished a number of things she was told she "couldn't" do. She's a woman in a man's cutthroat profession -- litigation -- and is very successful. Don't let the pretty package fool you!

7) She's an exceptionally hard worker with an almost bottomless reservoir of energy.

Melissa can't expect to walk away with the election, but she's going to do well.

Anonymous said...

Well... I went to her website and there is a lot of rhetoric. A lot of cheerleading and pom pom shaking but not a great amount of detail.

She talks about small business incentives, tax relief, etc and then cites tuition and road tolls. I work with small business and she is talking about issues that have virtually no impact on business cost.

How is she going to lower the cost of Worker's Comp insurance (which is mandatory and attached to payroll), inspection fees, the expensive multiple permits the cities require (like a permit for compressed air... it's AIR) CA's high payroll taxes, EDD cost, insurance fraud, paid sick leave, all trash collection services having been sold to a limited number of companies/ie a monopoly, as well as the exorbitant cost of unions and civil servant pensions?

What does she plan to do about that??? Those are the costs I see on a daily basis that are driving businesses out of California. These are the things that make the states of Arizona, Utah, New Mexico offer to pay complete moving costs for any business to relocate.

Roy's obituary in LA Times and Register: "we were lucky to have you while we did"

  This ran in the Sunday December 24, 2023 edition of the Los Angeles Times and the Orange County Register : July 14, 1955 - November 20, 2...